US natgas prices edge up to 5-month high on cold late November forecast
Gas output in 2024 on track to decline for first time since 2020 pandemic
Utilities likely injected more gas than usual for 5th week in a row
Winter is over - "widow maker" March-April spread on track for record low
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 19 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% on Tuesday to a five-month high, on forecasts for colder weather in late November that should boost heating demand and force utilities to start pulling gas from storage by the U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.5 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $2.998 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their highest close since June 12. Capping gains were milder weather forecasts for the next two weeks that could limit heating demand.
Analysts have said mild autumn weathershould allow utilities to keep injecting more gas into storage thanusual for the week ended Nov. 15 and possibly Nov. 22.
If correct, the week ended Nov. 15 would be the first time since October 2022 that inventoriesrose more than usual for five straight weeks.
There was currently about 7% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023. Annual output remainedon track to decline in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut demand in 2020.
Many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained soft since then.
Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 27 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 28-Dec. 4.
With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 107.7 bcfd this week to 115.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.4 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.
Week ended Nov 15 Forecast | Week ended Nov 8 Actual | Year ago Nov 15 | Five-year average Nov 15 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +20 | +42 | +12 | -16 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 3,994 | 3,974 | 3,828 | 3,730 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 7.1% | 6.1% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 2.96 | 2.97 | 3.06 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 14.48 | 14.61 | 14.45 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 14.65 | 14.25 | 17.02 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 323 | 301 | 319 | 312 | 328 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 6 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 7 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 309 | 309 | 325 | 321 | 331 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 99.6 | 101.9 | 101.9 | 105.7 | 98.0 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 9.0 | 8.5 | 8.2 | N/A | 7.8 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 108.5 | 110.4 | 110.1 | N/A | 105.9 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | N/A | 2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.8 | N/A | 5.5 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.9 | 13.8 | 14.0 | 14.5 | 11.0 |
U.S. Commercial | 9.6 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 11.5 | 11.5 |
U.S. Residential | 13.7 | 15.4 | 19.5 | 17.4 | 16.8 |
U.S. Power Plant | 32.2 | 29.2 | 29.4 | 30.2 | 28.8 |
U.S. Industrial | 23.1 | 23.4 | 24.1 | 23.8 | 24.3 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.9 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 85.9 | 85.7 | 92.9 | 90.3 | 90.0 |
Total U.S. Demand | 108.1 | 107.7 | 115.4 | N/A | 109.4 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2003 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 98 | 99 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 98 | 96 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 95 | 97 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Nov 22 | Week ended Nov 15 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
Wind | 15 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 10 |
Solar | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Hydro | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
Other | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 42 | 41 | 38 | 37 |
Coal | 13 | 14 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
Nuclear | 22 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.08 | 1.65 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.85 | 1.57 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 4.39 | 3.07 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.67 | 1.48 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 1.88 | 1.48 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.06 | 1.72 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 2.91 | 2.30 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 0.49 | 0.17 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 1.03 | 0.73 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL | 39.25 | 36.25 | |||
PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL | 32.25 | 24.25 | |||
Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL | 25.00 | 16.00 | |||
Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL | 45.33 | 31.75 | |||
Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL | 34.50 | 23.50 | |||
SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL | 36.00 | 36.00 |
Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Bernadette Baum and David Gregorio
For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.
For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal
For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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