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US natgas prices edge up 2% on forecasts for more cold, heating demand



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Utilities likely added more gas to storage than normal for a fifth time last week

Speculators cut net shorts to lowest since mid October

Gas prices in Europe held near 11-month high on worries about Russian supplies

By Scott DiSavino

Nov 18 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 2% on Monday on forecasts for colder weather and more heating demand next week than previously expected.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 6.7 cents, or 2.4%, to $2.890 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:37 a.m. EST (1337 GMT).

With gas futures up about 25% over the past four weeks, speculators last week cut their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to the lowest since mid October, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.

Capping recent price increases was another forecast for mild weather and less demand this week that should allow utilities to keep injecting more gas than usual into storage for another week.

Analysts said utilities likely added more gas to storage than usual during the week ended Nov. 15. If correct, that would be the first time inventories rose by more than usual for five weeks in a row since October 2022.

There was currently about 7% more gas in storage than normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

Prior to the last month or so, however, injections had been smaller than usual for 14 straight weeks because many producers reduced drilling activities this year after average spot monthly prices at the U.S. Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana fell to a 32-year low for the month of March, and have remained relatively soft since then.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states eased to 100.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November, down from 101.3 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

On a daily basis, however, output hit a two-week high of 102.3 bcfd on Nov. 16, up from a recent nine-month low of 98.5 bcfd on Nov. 10.

Meteorologists projected weather in the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through Nov. 28 before turning colder than normal from Nov. 29-Dec. 3.

With colder weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 108.3 bcfd this week to 117.1 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Friday, while its forecast for next week was higher.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.4 bcfd so far in November, up from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, ahead of recent leaders Australia and Qatar, as much higher global prices feed demand for more exports due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Gas prices held near an 11-month high of $14 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe TRNLTTFMc1 on worries Russia was cutting off supplies at the same time colder winter weather was boosting heating demand. NG/EU

Gas was also trading at a 14-week high of around $14 per mmBtu at the Japan-Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia.

Week ended Nov 15 Forecast

Week ended Nov 8 Actual

Year ago Nov 15

Five-year average

Nov 15

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+20

+42

+12

-16

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,994

3,974

3,828

3,730

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

7.1%

6.1%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

2.87

2.82

3.06

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

14.24

14.30

14.45

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

14.25

13.56

17.02

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

301

264

319

312

323

U.S. GFS CDDs

8

9

6

9

8

U.S. GFS TDDs

309

273

325

321

331

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

99.6

102.0

101.7

105.7

98.0

U.S. Imports from Canada

9.0

8.5

8.3

N/A

7.8

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

108.5

110.5

110.0

N/A

105.9

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

2.4

2.6

2.5

N/A

2.9

U.S. Exports to Mexico

5.9

6.1

6.1

N/A

5.5

U.S. LNG Exports

13.9

13.9

14.2

14.5

11.0

U.S. Commercial

9.6

10.1

12.6

11.5

11.5

U.S. Residential

13.7

15.2

19.8

17.4

16.8

U.S. Power Plant

32.2

29.6

30.0

30.2

28.8

U.S. Industrial

23.1

23.4

24.2

23.8

24.3

U.S. Plant Fuel

4.9

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.3

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.3

3.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

85.9

85.7

94.2

90.3

90.0

Total U.S. Demand

108.1

108.3

117.1

N/A

109.4

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2003

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

99

92

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

96

87

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

97

89

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Nov 22

Week ended Nov 15

2023

2022

2021

Wind

16

13

10

11

10

Solar

5

5

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

2

2

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

38

42

41

38

37

Coal

13

14

17

21

23

Nuclear

22

20

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.65

2.11

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.57

1.86

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.07

4.22

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.48

1.72

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.48

1.78

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.72

2.05

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.30

2.51

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.17

0.14

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.73

0.60

SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

36.25

43.75

PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

24.25

35.25

Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

16.00

12.50

Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

31.75

27.75

Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

23.50

23.75

SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

36.00

36.00



Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Andrea Ricci

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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