By Scott DiSavino

Nov 27 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures fell about 5% on Wednesday on rising output and forecasts for less cold weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks than previously expected.

That price drop happened before the release of a federal report expected to show that utilities added gas to storage last week in what will likely be the last injection of 2024 as mild weather kept heating demand low.

Analysts said utilities likely added 1 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage during the week ended Nov. 22. That compares with a build of 5 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year average draw of 30 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL

On its first day as the front month, gas futures NGc1 for January delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were down 15.6 cents, or 4.5%, to $3.311 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 8:29 a.m. EST (1329 GMT).

On Tuesday, when December futures were still the front month, the contract closed at its highest level since November 2023 for a second day in a row.

In the spot market, meanwhile, the coming of wintry weather across parts of the United States caused gas prices to rise to their highest since January in several regions, including the Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL benchmark in Louisiana, New York NG-CG-NY-SNL, Chicago NG-CG-CH-SNL and the Eastern Gas South hub NG-PCN-APP-SNL in Pennsylvania.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states rose to 101.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in November from 101.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a record 105.3 bcfd in December 2023.

Analysts expect producers to boost gas output in 2025 as rising demand from liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants increase prices after drillers reduced production in 2024 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic cut usage of the fuel.

Annual average gas prices at the Henry Hub will soar by over 40% in 2025 after dropping to a four-year low in 2024, according to analysts forecasts. NGAS/POLL

Meteorologists projected that weather in the Lower 48 will turn from mostly colder than normal now through Dec. 3 to mostly near-normal levels from Dec. 4-12.

With seasonally colder weather coming, LSEG forecast that average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would jump from 114.5 bcfd this week to 131.0 bcfd next week. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.

The amount of gas flowing to the seven big operating U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 13.5 bcfd so far in November from 13.1 bcfd in October. That compares with a monthly record high of 14.7 bcfd in December 2023.

Analysts, however, have noted that LNG feedgas would be even higher but for issues at Freeport LNG in Texas.

Gas flows to the 2.1-bcfd Freeport plant have averaged 1.7 bcfd over the past two weeks due in part to various problems that caused two of the plant's three liquefaction trains to shut unexpectedly. Train 2 tripped off line on Nov. 15 and again on Nov. 22, while Train 3 shut on Nov. 20.

Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Mark Porter

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C