US bonds extend rally in holiday shortened session
By Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK, Nov 29 (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury yields dropped amid thin trading during the holiday-shortened market session on Friday, extending a weekly bond rally spurred by optimism about the new U.S. Treasury secretary and some respite from inflation concerns.
Benchmark 10-year yields dipped to a month low, while two- and thirty-year yields hit their lowest in three weeks, partly because of holiday-week effects after Thanksgiving on Thursday as well as month-end investor positioning.
The move lower in yields, which decline when prices rise, indicated further unwinding of the trades linked to Donald Trump's election, which had put downward pressure on bonds in previous weeks because of expectations for higher deficits and inflation during a second Trump presidency.
This week's rally began after Trump named Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary last Friday and gained momentum after a string of well-received Treasury auctions as well as inflation data in line with estimates.
"Month-end positioning is likely to be playing a role, particularly going into the long U.S. Thanksgiving weekend, which is likely to have led to some increased demand for Treasuries," said David Page, head of macroeconomic research at AXA Investment Managers.
"Moreover, the market has taken the news that Trump will appoint Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, and this has created a notional basis for a rally after a strong sell-off over the last six weeks," he said.
In early trade on Friday, 10-year yields US10YT=RR were seen at around 4.2%, their lowest since Oct. 30. Two-year yields US2YT=RR, which more closely reflect monetary policy expectations, stood at 4.186%, their lowest since Nov. 8.
"Its been a one-way slide lower in yield since the Asia reopen, though light flows have magnified the moves to a degree," analysts at Citi wrote in a note.
The closely watched curve comparing two- and 10-year yields US2US10=TWEB was last at 1.3 basis points, flatter than on Thursday - meaning the premium of long-term yields over shorter-ones was smaller.
That part of the curve inverted earlier this week for the first time in over a month, with two-year yields briefly higher than the 10-year. A curve inversion is a bond market signal of a possible economic contraction in the future.
U.S. stock and bond markets will stay open for a half-day on Friday. The sustainability of this week's decline in yields might become clearer once the new month starts next week.
For Page at AXA Investment Managers the weeks ahead will continue to be volatile as speculation mounts over the next U.S administration's policies.
"Bonds look expensive to us at these yields," he said.
Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; editing by Jonathan Oatis
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