The yen could surprise traders next year
Nov 26 (Reuters) -The yen could surprise traders next year by rising further while they expect it to fall.
Although USD/JPY boomed after dropping below 140 in September, reaching 156.41 in the wake of November's U.S. election, its trade-weighted value has proved more resilient.
On a trade-weighted basis in October, the yen only surrendered around 2.5% of the 8% gain that followed changes made to Japanese monetary policy in July.
In October traders flipped an almost 6 billion bet on the dollar falling to wager roughly 4 billion that it goes up. This represents both a growing headwind to a further USD/JPY rise, and a threat that the Japanese central bank may eventually counter by intervening.
Although traders have reason to expect U.S. policy to underpin their positions, investors who fear the ramifications of a trade dispute on risk appetite may increasingly eye the yen as a worthy investment.
The yen may be the most under invested of the few currencies considered to be safe, and that makes it safer.
The base in its trade-weighted value may represent the end of a five decade decline with bigger gains next year supported by the planned gradual tightening of Japanese monetary policy.
With Japanese exporters potentially standing to gain when those in China, Europe, Mexico and Canada suffer from tariffs imposed by the United States, the yen could be next year's surprise package, ending the year substantially stronger than where it began.
For more click on FXBUZ
Trade weighted yen https://tmsnrt.rs/3Z7Lqdn
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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