'The downward cycle is over' - Bernstein sees recovery in European real estate
** European property sector bottomed out and is set to recover, supported by lower rate environment, Bernstein says
** Positive rental growth in good quality assets is expected to support an increase in valuations and core profit, benefiting shareholders returns, the broker says, anticipating a double-digit total accounting return on average for 2025/26
** Bernstein names Merlin Properties MRL.MC as top pick, citing the group's leading position in the expanding data centre sector, and upgrades "undervalued" Icade ICAD.PA and URW URW.PA
** Bernstein says growth may emerge earlier in Britain than across continental Europe; prefers redevelopers Great Portland Estates GPEG.L and Derwent London DLN.L over Workspace WKP.L
** On the German residential market, the broker prefers TAG TEGG.de, quoting superior earnings and dividend potential supported by expansion in Poland
** Bernstein cuts Belgian WDP WDPP.BR on less growth potential, and prefers VGP VGP1.BR, which delivers on its development plan and prompts lower leverage concerns
COMPANY NAME | NEW RATING | OLD RATING |
Merlin Properties MRL.MC | outperform | market-perform |
Icade ICAD.PA | outperform | market-perform |
Great Portland Estates GPEG.L | outperform | market-perform |
Derwent London DLN.L | outperform | market-perform |
Land Securities Group LAND.L | outperform | market-perform |
TAG Immobilien TEGG.DE | outperform | market-perform |
Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield URW.PA | outperform | suspended |
VGP VGP1.BR | market-perform | market-perform |
Eurocommercial Properties ECMPA.AS | market-perform | outperform |
LE Immobilien LEGn.DE | market-perform | outperform |
Workspace Group WKP.L | market-perform | outperform |
Warehouses de Pauw WDPP.BR | underperform | market-perform |
Reporting by Alban Kacher
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