Thailand economy likely picked up some pace in Q2
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=THGDPY%3DECI GDP poll data
Thai Q2 GDP seen growing 2.1% y/y vs 1.5% in Q1
Q2 GDP seen at 0.9% q/q sa vs 1.1 in Q1
Q2 GDP data due on Monday, Aug 19
By Rahul Trivedi
BENGALURU, Aug 15 (Reuters) -Thailand's economic growth likely gathered a bit of pace in the second quarter thanks to higher government spending, but a tepid recovery in tourism and high household debt cloud the overall outlook, according to economists polled by Reuters.
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy was forecast to expand 2.1% in the April-June period, median prediction in the Aug. 8-15 poll showed, up from 1.5% in the preceding quarter.
On a quarterly basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.9% from 1.1% in the first quarter, a smaller sample of forecasts showed.
Forecasts for the data due on Aug. 19 range from 1.8% to 2.8%.
"For Q2, government spending and investment, which rapidly accelerated, should ... drive economic growth. There could be some slowdown in private consumption amid high household debt, as well as in exports of services," said Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist with Krung Thai Bank.
"I still have some concerns about potential impacts from a global economic slowdown, especially in the case of (a) U.S. economic recession, which could hamper Thailand's exports."
The outlook darkened on Thursday with a court dismissing Prime Minister Srettha after less than a year in power, prospect of more uncertainty in a country dogged by coups and court rulings that have brought down multiple governments and political parties.
Last month, the World Bank downgraded Thailand's 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.8%, citing weaker-than-expected goods exports and public investments.
While exports rose only 0.3% year-on-year in June, they grew 5.8% in April and 7.8% in May.
Apart from weak global demand and a slowdown in China - the country's major trading partner - Thailand's vital tourism sector was also yet to recover to its pre-pandemic levels.
"The weak outlook for China's economy will affect Thailand mainly through the tourism sector. A subdued domestic outlook has caused Chinese tourists to cut back on discretionary spending such as holiday expenditures," said Eugene Tan, associate economist at Moody's Analytics.
Thailand's economic growth was expected to average 2.6% for the year, according to a separate Reuters poll taken in July, a significant downgrade from 3.4% predicted at the beginning of the year.
Reporting by Rahul Trivedi; Polling by Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Stephen Coates
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.
