Swedish crown's impressive rally is due a correction
June 5 (Reuters) -The crown has seen a steady improvement since late April, with a 3.7% gain versus the euro and the removal of key EUR/SEK support points, but the charts are suggesting the SEK bull run needs a period of consolidation or a correction.
The daily relative strength index dropped below the 30-line on Monday, indicating oversold conditions. Profit-taking can also kick in ahead of a 76.4% Fibonacci level. The cross hit a low of 11.3270, just ahead of 11.2876, a retracement of the 11.1320-11.7700 March-May rally.
The SEK has reflected a gradual improvement in the domestic backdrop. Inflation is falling, economic growth recovering and, with the currency on a recovery path, the Riksbank has been able to start an easing cycle.
The central bank remains cautious and, although inflation has edged closer to its 2.0% target, there remains a risk from imported inflation should the crown start to weaken again. This caution might force the bank to hold rates steady at 3.75% this month, but there is potential for further rate cuts later in the year.
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EUR/SEK daily Ichimoku chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4cnvby3
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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