Sweden's crown could make a comeback this week
Nov 4 (Reuters) -A near six-percent depreciation in the Swedish crown since late September and fundamentally a negative backdrop will continue to sour sentiment but technically there is scope for EUR/SEK to come away from a developing top between 11.6500 and 11.6510.
As the Riksbank shifts its attention away from inflation and focuses on the fragile Swedish economy a 50-basis interest rate cut is on the cards for this week's policy meeting on Thursday. The easing cycle has taken its toll on the crown but a half-point cut this week is likely to have been fully priced into EUR/SEK.
Daily price action has not been kind to the SEK with EUR/SEK posting six consecutive bull closes into a high of 11.6510 on Nov. 1. However, daily technical studies suggest the crown is oversold and screaming out for an adjustment. A relative strength reading clear above the 70.00 upper band and slow stochastic looking stretched in the mid-90s argue for a EUR/SEK pullback.
A Dec. 2 11.4005-11.4075 Ichimoku cloud twist adds to the correction risk. Cloud twists can appear to attract.
In terms of pullback targets Fibonacci retracement levels taken off the 11.2450-11.6510 Sept. 27-Nov. 1 rally are at 11.5552, 11.4959 and 11.4480.
For more click on FXBUZ
EUR/SEK daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3YTR304
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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