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Street View: Tough road for James Hardie to meet FY25 forecast



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** Fibre cement maker James Hardie Industries JHX.AX pointed to a weaker-than-expected Q2 2025 adjusted net income on Tuesday

** That sent its shares down ~3% to close at their lowest level since July 11

** The outlook for full-year 2025 was maintained; analysts predict a larger skew in the second half as the macro environment for Q2 remains negative


A STEEP HILL TO CLIMB

** Citi (cuts PT to A$50.90 from A$51.10, retains "neutral" rating) expects JHX to fall short of its implied 2H guidance owing to unfavourable weather conditions, challenges to debt-funded repair and remodel projects, among others

** Sees protracted recovery in large R&R activities; adds material recovery in earnings is more likely in FY26

** Jefferies (cuts PT to A$52.00 from A$52.60, retains "hold" rating) says volume guidance implies considerable catch-up in Q3 and Q4

** "This will be more difficult... given the deteriorating R&R cycle" - Jefferies

** Morningstar expects flat volumes in FY25, margins recovery in FY26

** Seven of 15 analysts rate JHX "buy" or higher, seven "hold" and one "sell"; their median PT is A$52.50 - LSEG data



Reporting by Sameer Manekar in Bengaluru

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