Sterling set for a bull month but warnings given
July 26 (Reuters) -A positive July is on the cards for sterling versus the dollar but significant developments in the Japanese Yen have taken their toll on the pound and cracks are appearing in the GBP/USD up-trend as a result.
GBP/USD started July on the front foot at levels around 1.2648, reached a new high for the year at 1.3044 by July 17 and looked good for further gains. The rally took sterling above the monthly Ichimoku cloud and 100-month moving average, strong bullish signals. However, these technical resistance points soon reasserted themselves as the pound reversed course.
A sharp change in the yen's fortunes has seen GBP/JPY drop from 208.08, a high since August 2008, to 196.03. The monthly bar chart is currently showing potential for a key month reversal, higher high, lower low, and a close clear below the previous month's close. The candlestick for July is also threatening to record a bearish engulfing line, a key trend reversal signal.
For GBP/USD a further move lower into month-end would leave a long upper shadow on the candle chart and the risk of a bearish shooting star signal.
A drop below 1.2620, the 10-month moving average line, could trigger a return to levels around 1.2300, last seen in April.
For more click on FXBUZ
GBP/USD monthly candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3WDZz1S
GBP/USD daily candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3LGYyA2
GBP/JPY monthly candle chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3Wnf4d5
(Peter Stoneham is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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