Sterling bulls stampede higher amid widening US rate expectations
Speculators are likely rebuilding long positions in GBP/USD as the pair rose to its highest in more than two years on Tuesday at 1.3246, and the pound could possibly advance as far as February 2022 highs above 1.36 as UK-U.S. rate expectations diverge after dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell Friday.
The Powell comments, suggesting the time for a policy shift is here, validate futures markets, which have been discounting at least a 25bp Fed rate cut in September since July payroll data on Aug. 1.
The question is how fast and deep Fed cuts will be.
Powell's Jackson Hole comments also noted a shift in the balance of risks to the Fed's dual mandate with employment increasingly in focus and inflation less so.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey on the other hand took a more measured approach in his Jackson Hole comments, noting inflation was becoming less stubborn, but not something the BoE is taking for granted.
The market take-away from Jackson Hole was for a more dovish Fed in the absolute and relative to the BoE, which is likely to keep UK rates higher for longer than the Fed, thereby extending sterling's run higher toward early 2022 highs.
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GBP Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4dCcsiZ
(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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