NOPA October US soybean crush seen at record 196.843 million bushels
By Karl Plume
CHICAGO, Nov 14 (Reuters) -The U.S. soybean crush likely surged to an all-time record in October, while soyoil stocks were forecast to have increased after hitting a near-decade low a month earlier, analysts said ahead of a National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report due on Friday.
NOPA members, who handle about 95% of all U.S. processed soybeans, were estimated to have crushed 196.843 million bushels last month, according to the average of estimates from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.
If realized, it would be up 11.0% from the September crush of 177.320 million bushels and up 3.7% from October 2023 when processors crushed 189.774 million bushels. It would also eclipse the previous monthly crush record of 196.406 million bushels set in March 2024.
U.S. soy crush capacity has swelled in recent years as processors built several new plants and expanded existing ones to meet surging vegetable oil demand from biofuels makers.
The crush in October is not expected to fully reflect that capacity growth as a large processing plant in Des Moines, Iowa, was idled for maintenance for a portion of the month.
Meanwhile, recent fluctuations in NOPA membership, with some plants becoming members and others leaving the group, also contributed to a wide range of crush estimates for the month, analysts said.
Crush estimates for October ranged from 189.500 million to 205.183 million bushels, with a median of 197.425 million bushels.
The NOPA report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. CST (1700 GMT) on Friday.
Soyoil stocks held by NOPA members as of Oct 31 were estimated at 1.090 billion lbs, based on estimates from seven analysts.
If the estimate is realized, it would be up 2.2% from 1.066 billion lbs at the end of September and the first stocks increase in seven months.
Oil stocks estimates ranged from 999 million to 1.226 billion lbs, with a median of 1.100 billion lbs.
NOTE: Crush figures listed in millions of bushels and soyoil stocks are in billions of pounds.
Crush | Soyoil stocks | |
Average trade estimate | 196.843 | 1.090 |
Highest trade estimate | 205.183 | 1.226 |
Lowest trade estimate | 189.500 | 0.999 |
NOPA Sept 2024 | 177.320 | 1.066 |
NOPA Oct 2023 | 189.774 | 1.099 |
Marex, Terry Reilly | 199.800 | 1.128 |
Zaner Ag Hedge | 198.850 | 1.077 |
Linn & Associates | 192.000 | 1.100 |
Midland Research | 189.500 | -- |
Marex, Charlie Sernatinger | 193.000 | 1.000 |
Doane Advisory Services | 196.000 | 1.100 |
StoneX Group Inc | 205.183 | -- |
Grain Service Corp | 200.000 | -- |
CrushTraders | 199.098 | 1.226 |
Unnamed analyst | 195.000 | 0.999 |
Reporting by Karl Plume, Editing by Franklin Paul
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