JPM sees volume/pricing trade-off amid weak demand in focus for European Staples in H2
** After a mixed H1 for European Staples, focus in H2 will be on the balance of volumes recovery versus easing pricing and accelerated promotion and marketing, as well as demand risks in U.S. and China, J.P. Morgan says
** It flags that the faster-than-expected normalisation in pricing is weighing on revenue growth while consumer demand also shows signs of strains in major markets, U.S. and China
** However, the brokerage notes evidence of volume recovery in food, ingredients, beer, and hygiene, despite the hit from bad summer weather
** JPM expects the sector's adjusted 2024 EPS growth to be led by Ingredients at 17% and Beers at 10%, Food/Household and Personal Care (HPC) and Soft Drinks to see 7%, and Spirits still weak at -7%
** It remains positive on Beer, as the sub-sector offers the best combination of EPS growth at reasonable valuation, while still being cautious on Spirits given risks of further EPS downgrades
** JPM downgrades UK consumer goods group Reckitt Benckiser RKT.L to "neutral" from "overweight" following a disappointing momentum on the core business, as sale of non-core assets will take time and has an uncertain outcome on value realisation
** The broker favours companies with building volumes momentum and cost tailwinds to margin with valuation support such as "overweight"-rated Unilever ULVR.L, Danone DANO.PA, Kerry KYGa.I, Symrise SY1G.DE, Anheuser-Busch Inbev ABI.BR, Heineken HEIN.AS, Puig PUIGb.MC, and Beiersdorf BEIG.DE
Reporting by Marta Frąckowiak
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