It's tough to look beyond the dollar
July 9 (Reuters) - FX markets are quiet while stocks markets are soaring, which is the foundation for carry trades. In an environment that supports these trades, it's tough to look beyond the dollar.
The dollar is supported by the highest interest rate for a major currency and extremely liquid. Those who don't want to hold cash have a wide choice of U.S. assets markets to invest in with high credit ratings.
Should anything spur a risk-averse reaction in world markets, the dollar as the world's reserve currency is likely to rise, and should little happen, those invested in dollars will earn decent returns with little risk.
There is also little choice for investors to do otherwise as there are few currencies that are supported by interest rates higher than those in the U.S. that are free floating. Those with much higher potential returns are far less liquid and much more risky emerging market currencies.
The longer the quiet holds, the greater the flow of cash toward the dollar is likely to become which should boost its value that could significantly enhance potential returns.
If, more likely when, U.S. interest rates fall, the stimulus for stocks is likely to have a bigger positive influence on carry trades than the small reduction in carry earned, bolstering investment in dollars.
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USD and influential factors https://tmsnrt.rs/461rxHV
(Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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