Individual Investor optimism highest since December - AAII
Main U.S. indexes red: Dow off most, down ~0.8%
Comms svcs leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Materials weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.85%
Dollar up slightly; bitcoin up >3%; gold, crude both down >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.23%
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INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR OPTIMISM HIGHEST SINCE DECEMBER - AAII
Optimism among individual investors over the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market hit a seven-month high in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey. With this, pessimism increased and neutral sentiment fell.
Meanwhile, it's a battle in terms of how investors view the valuation of stocks. Most investors surveyed fall into one of two camps: either that valuations are mixed, that is some stocks are expensive and others are cheap, or that stocks are in general over-valued.
AAII reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, gained 3.6 percentage points to 52.7%. Bullish sentiment is "unusually high" for the second straight week and is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 36th time in 37 weeks. Bullish sentiment was last higher on December 21, 2023 (52.9%).
Bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 1.7 percentage points to 23.4%. Bearish sentiment is below its historical average of 31.0% for the sixth consecutive week.
Neutral sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell 5.3 percentage points to 23.8%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 11th time in 18 weeks and was last lower on October 12, 2023 (23.5%).
With these changes, the bull-bear spread added 1.8 percentage points to 29.3% from 27.5% last week. The bull-bear spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 11th consecutive week.
In this week’s special question, AAII asked its members how they would describe the current valuation of stocks.
Here is AAII 's graphic showing how they responded:
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
U.S. STOCKS MIXED AND MESSY EARLY - CLICK HERE
'TRUMP 2.0' COULD MUDDLE EM-FRIENDLY FED CUTS - CITI - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 INDEX: A QUICK GOODBYE TO THIS WEEK'S RECORD HIGHS - CLICK HERE
THE BOE'S NEWEST RATE SETTER COULD HOLD THE DECIDING VOTE - CLICK HERE
UK TO BENEFIT FROM TECH ROUT, IMPROVING MACRO - CLICK HERE
BEIJING MAY HAVE TO ACCEPT LOWER GROWTH - CLICK HERE
SHARES DIP, CYBER OUTAGE IN FOCUS - CLICK HERE
AAII07192024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4cO6FGJ
AAIISQVals07192024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3y65wve
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