Individual Investor bulls take a dive - AAII
Dow up ~0.5%, S&P 500 edges green, Nasdaq slips
Cons disc leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Comm Svcs weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index up >1%
Dollar, bitcoin gain, crude up ~1%; gold up >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~4.41%
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INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BULLS TAKE A DIVE - AAII
Optimism among individual investors over the short-term outlook for U.S. stocks plunged in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey. With this, both pessimism, and neutral sentiment increased.
Additionally, a little over half of investors surveyed thought the Fed's decision early in the month to cut rates 25 bps was the "right move."
AAII reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, slid 8.6 percentage points to 41.3%. Bullish sentiment is above its historical average of 37.5% for the 54th time in 55 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rose 4.9 percentage points to 33.2%, which is its highest reading since early August. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the first time in 10 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, added 3.7 percentage points to 25.5%. Neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 19th time in 20 weeks.
With these changes, the bull-bear spread collapsed 13.4 percentage points to 8.1% from 21.5% last week. The spread is above its historical average of 6.5% for the 28th time in 29 weeks.
In this week’s special question, AAII asked its members what they think about the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 25 bps at the start of this month.
Here is AAII's graphic showing how they responded:
(Terence Gabriel)
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AAII11222024 https://tmsnrt.rs/4fDqJNp
AAIISQ11222024 https://tmsnrt.rs/40Z6tRX
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