High-spending Irish coalition eyes re-election as rival Sinn Fein falters
Centre-right Fine Gael and Fianna Fail eye return to power
Left-wing opposition Sinn Fein have slumped from 2022-23 highs
Exit poll due at 2200 GMT on Friday
Adds comments from voters
By Graham Fahy and Padraic Halpin
DUBLIN, Nov 29 (Reuters) -Ireland's two main governing parties looked on course to return to power as polls opened onFriday, thanks to a giveaway October budget and a loss of momentum by opposition Sinn Fein - a result that would buck a global trend of voters rejecting incumbents.
Prime Minister Simon Harris called the election on the heels of a 10.5 billion euro ($11 billion) budget that began to put money into voters' pockets during the campaign, largesse made possible by billions of euros of foreign multinational corporate tax revenues.
An opinion poll on Wednesday put Harris' Fine Gael on 20%, level with Sinn Fein and just behind its main coalition partner Fianna Fail on 21%. A broadly similar result in 2020 led the two centre-right parties to govern without left-wing rival Sinn Fein and they have redoubled a pledge to do so again this time.
The main risk to their return would be if a slump in support for Fine Gael in the last two weeks of the campaign worsens.
A campaign full of missteps, culminating last weekend in a viral clip of Harris walking away from an exasperated care worker, has cost Fine Gael a quarter of its support since the start of the campaign, a Monday poll showed.
"Sinn Fein would have to do much better than the polls suggest and Fine Gael would have to do much worse for things to change significantly," said Theresa Reidy, senior lecturer in politics at University College Cork.
That is not impossible, Reidy added, but Sinn Fein would have to beat the 25% they secured in 2020.
That would still be sharply lower than the 30-35% Sinn Fein had in polls in 2022 and 2023, a level that signalled it was on course to govern. Its electoral coalition has since begun to fray, in part due to anger among working class voters at Sinn Fein's relatively liberal immigration policies.
"I know for certain people, things aren't going well but I think we're going steady and change for change's sake is not what I want," said Hilda Conway, 76, who gave Fianna Fail her top vote in the leafy Dublin suburb of Sandymount.
Conway said she gave her next preference votes to Fine Gael - having rarely done so before - a trend that could give the two centre-right parties an added advantage over Sinn Fein under Ireland's single transferable vote system.
Others voiced thewidespread frustration that the government has faced during the campaign at their inability to turn the healthiest public finances in Europe into better public services.
"We need change in this country. We need to end the 100-year coalition of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael," said Sarah Eoghan, a 20-year-old student voting in central Dublin, who said a lack of affordable housing was a major issue for her.
All parties have laid out ambitious spending plans to try to fix the problems, but are banking on a continued surge in the corporate tax mainly paid by big U.S. firms, which could be threatened by Donald Trump's pledge to slash U.S. corporate tax rates and impose trade tariffs.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, former rivals thathave, between them, led every government since the foundation of the state almost a century ago, will likely need the support ofat least one other smaller party to reach a majority. They currently govern with the Greens.
An exit poll is to be published when voting ends at 2200 GMT on Friday, with the full results to come over the weekend.
($1 = 0.9465 euros)
Additional reporting by Conor Humphries. Editing by Jane Merriman and Daren Butler
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