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FX steady with Jackson Hole, Polish data in view



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-FX steady with Jackson Hole, Polish data in view</title></head><body>

By Alan Charlish

WARSAW, Aug 20 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were treading water on Tuesday, with investors looking ahead to a slew of economic data in Poland and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell due later this week.

Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers on Friday, and analysts say the conference will be the first opportunity for the Fed to push back against the chance of a 50-basis point cut at one of the year's three remaining meetings.

The Fed will also publish the minutes of its last meeting on Wednesday.

"We are in wait-and-see mode before Jackson Hole and there are several significant data sets also this week, but somehow so far the market sentiment is positive," said one Warsaw-based currency trader.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.05% firmer against the euro at 4.2660 at 0922 GMT.

Poland's statistics office will publish a raft of economic data this week, with indicators such as corporate sector wages and retail sales likely to be important in determining when the National Bank of Poland (NBP) could start easing policy.

NBP chief Adam Glapinski has ruled out rate cuts this year and has said the cost of credit may only start to fall from its current level of 5.75% in 2026.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect rates to fall in the second quarter of 2025.

"We believe that (the data) may – if it is optimistic – contribute to the melting of expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council," Bank Millennium said in a note.

Elsewhere the Czech crown EURCZK= was flat at 25.16 and the Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.13% firmer at 394.05. Markets in Budapest were closed for a holiday.

Benchmark 10-year Polish bond yields PL10YT=RR were almost 2 basis points lower at 5.3980% while 10-year Czech yields CZ10YT=RR were little changed at 3.73%.

Poland will sell bonds worth 5 billion-9 billion zlotys at an auction on Thursday.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1122 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1600

25.1570

-0.01%

-1.82%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

394.0500

394.5500

+0.13%

-2.76%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2660

4.2680

+0.05%

+1.84%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9774

4.9777

+0.01%

-0.06%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0200

117.0600

+0.03%

+0.19%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1577.93

1582.1000

-0.26%

+11.59%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

72282.10

72282.10

+0.00%

+19.24%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2402.84

2426.89

-0.99%

+2.55%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

18326.46

18191.96

+0.74%

+19.23%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3860

-0.0110

+096bps

+0bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.4650

-0.0030

+130bps

+2bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.7300

-0.0050

+149bps

+1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

5.0150

0.0200

+258bps

+3bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.1780

0.0070

+301bps

+3bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3980

-0.0170

+316bps

+0bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.88

3.50

3.24

4.41


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.76

6.33

5.94

6.54


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.78

5.47

5.06

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices






**************************************************************






Reporting by Alan Charlish and Pawel Florkiewicz
Editing by Helen Popper

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