FX steady with Jackson Hole, Polish data in view
By Alan Charlish
WARSAW, Aug 20 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were treading water on Tuesday, with investors looking ahead to a slew of economic data in Poland and comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell due later this week.
Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers on Friday, and analysts say the conference will be the first opportunity for the Fed to push back against the chance of a 50-basis point cut at one of the year's three remaining meetings.
The Fed will also publish the minutes of its last meeting on Wednesday.
"We are in wait-and-see mode before Jackson Hole and there are several significant data sets also this week, but somehow so far the market sentiment is positive," said one Warsaw-based currency trader.
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.05% firmer against the euro at 4.2660 at 0922 GMT.
Poland's statistics office will publish a raft of economic data this week, with indicators such as corporate sector wages and retail sales likely to be important in determining when the National Bank of Poland (NBP) could start easing policy.
NBP chief Adam Glapinski has ruled out rate cuts this year and has said the cost of credit may only start to fall from its current level of 5.75% in 2026.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect rates to fall in the second quarter of 2025.
"We believe that (the data) may – if it is optimistic – contribute to the melting of expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Council," Bank Millennium said in a note.
Elsewhere the Czech crown EURCZK= was flat at 25.16 and the Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.13% firmer at 394.05. Markets in Budapest were closed for a holiday.
Benchmark 10-year Polish bond yields PL10YT=RR were almost 2 basis points lower at 5.3980% while 10-year Czech yields CZ10YT=RR were little changed at 3.73%.
Poland will sell bonds worth 5 billion-9 billion zlotys at an auction on Thursday.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1122 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1600 | 25.1570 | -0.01% | -1.82% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.0500 | 394.5500 | +0.13% | -2.76% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2660 | 4.2680 | +0.05% | +1.84% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9774 | 4.9777 | +0.01% | -0.06% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0200 | 117.0600 | +0.03% | +0.19% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1577.93 | 1582.1000 | -0.26% | +11.59% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 72282.10 | 72282.10 | +0.00% | +19.24% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2402.84 | 2426.89 | -0.99% | +2.55% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18326.46 | 18191.96 | +0.74% | +19.23% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3860 | -0.0110 | +096bps | +0bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4650 | -0.0030 | +130bps | +2bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7300 | -0.0050 | +149bps | +1bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0150 | 0.0200 | +258bps | +3bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.1780 | 0.0070 | +301bps | +3bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3980 | -0.0170 | +316bps | +0bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.88 | 3.50 | 3.24 | 4.41 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.76 | 6.33 | 5.94 | 6.54 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.78 | 5.47 | 5.06 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Alan Charlish and Pawel Florkiewicz
Editing by Helen Popper
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