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FX steady ahead of ECB rates decision



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-FX steady ahead of ECB rates decision</title></head><body>

By Alan Charlish

WARSAW, Sept 12 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were little changed in Thursday morning trade as markets waited for what is almost certain to be a further rate cut from the European Central Bank and signals about potential further easing.

Analysts expect the deposit rate to be cut by 25 basis points to 3.5%, and markets will be closely watching a press conference with ECB President Christine Lagarde for clues as to how quickly borrowing costs will fall in subsequent meetings.

"The focus is on the ECB meeting, they are likely to cut rates but the most interesting thing will be the new macro forecasts and the rhetoric of Ms Lagarde regarding the economic outlook," said Mateusz Sutowicz, a financial market analyst at Bank Millennium in Warsaw.

"If we get information that the October meeting will bring another rate cut, then it will mean that the eurodollar will get a fresh boost to go down, and then the CEE currencies will be under pressure, but our baseline scenario is that Ms Lagarde will say nothing about the next moves."

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.10% weaker against the euro at 4.30.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.06% weaker at 25.114 and the Hungarian forint EURHUF= was broadly stable at 396.50.

The region's main stock indices were up 0.4% to 1.5%.

In Poland, shares in Grupa Azoty ATTP.WA jumped as much as 19% on Thursday after the firm said it would analyse options for its polymers business with refiner Orlen, boosting speculation that Azoty might bring new investors into its flagship project.

Meanwhile, shares in Czech gunmaker Colt CZ Group edged 0.3% higher after it posted a 41.2% rise in first-half revenue on Thursday as U.S. sales recovered and the group completed its acquisition of ammunition manufacturer Sellier & Bellot.




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1029 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1140

25.0990

-0.06%

-1.64%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

396.5000

396.5500

+0.01%

-3.36%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3000

4.2955

-0.10%

+1.03%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9742

4.9744

+0.00%

+0.00%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9000

117.0200

+0.10%

+0.30%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1571.78

1565.2500

+0.42%

+11.16%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

72667.40

71805.06

+1.20%

+19.87%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2295.70

2262.33

+1.48%

-2.02%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17376.50

17329.67

+0.27%

+13.05%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2490

-0.0080

+107bps

-5bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.4900

0.0190

+150bps

-2bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.6870

0.0040

+156bps

-2bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.6290

-0.0110

+245bps

-6bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.0210

0.0320

+303bps

+0bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.2800

0.0120

+315bps

-2bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS








3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.86

3.49

3.15

4.33


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.21

5.73

5.18

6.49


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.75

5.32

4.79

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices






**************************************************************








Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Alison Williams

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