FX holds steady amid dollar strength
Correct day of the week to Thursday from Wednesday in paragraph 7 for Kotecki's comments
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Nov 14 (Reuters) -Central European currencies held firm on Thursday after wide swings in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election last week as the dollar's strength put a lid on potential gains.
The dollar stood at a one-year high against major peers and headed for a fifth straight daily gain fueled by higher yields and Trump's victory.
The Czech crown EURCZK= and the Hungarian forint EURHUF= were both little changed at 25.278 and 407.80 per euro respectively.
"USD quickly resumed its rally following the release of US inflation numbers, which we believe will put renewed pressure on CEE currencies today," ING wrote in a note.
"Local factors are not significantly influencing trading at the moment, with global dynamics being the primary driver," they said.
The Polish zloty meanwhile added 0.13% to trade at 4.3355 to the euro.
Polish rate setter Ludwik Kotecki said on Thursday that discussion about rate cuts will start in March and the total scale of easing in 2025 should be less than one percentage point.
Poland, unlike Hungary or the Czech Republic, has seen interest rates unchanged for the past year after two cuts in 2023.
Poland's finance ministry will offer bonds worth 5-9 billion zlotys at an auction on Thursday.
"The tender will be all the more important because the results of the two previous ones turned out to be very disappointing and make it difficult for the ministry to efficiently prefinance next year's (record) borrowing needs," Bank Millennium analysts said in a note.
Data published on Thursday showed that Poland's economy grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the third quarter, in line with analyst expectations.
Romania also reported third-quarter GDP data on Thursday showing the country's gross domestic product grew 1.1% on the year in the third quarter, below market expectations, raising concerns about stagnant industry and the fiscal deficit.
Romania's leu EURRON= was unmoved.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1103 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2780 | 25.2880 | +0.04% | -2.28% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 407.8000 | 407.8500 | +0.01% | -6.04% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3355 | 4.3410 | +0.13% | +0.21% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9762 | 4.9765 | +0.01% | -0.04% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.8800 | 116.9800 | +0.09% | +0.31% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1666.96 | 1659.7900 | +0.43% | +17.89% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 77435.62 | 77123.76 | +0.40% | +27.74% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2220.87 | 2232.69 | -0.53% | -5.21% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17687.85 | 17681.47 | +0.04% | +15.07% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3900 | 0.0240 | +125bps | +4bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7460 | 0.0210 | +153bps | +2bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0180 | 0.0060 | +163bps | +0bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0260 | 0.0150 | +289bps | +3bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4370 | 0.0190 | +323bps | +2bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.8130 | 0.0300 | +342bps | +3bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.72 | 3.54 | 3.35 | 3.94 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.91 | 6.68 | 6.45 | 6.50 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.70 | 5.19 | 4.84 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** | ||||||
Additional reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Shreya Biswas
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