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FX ease further, crown touches six-week low



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By Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, Sept 30 (Reuters) -The Czech crown hit a six-week low and Hungary's forint fell for a fourth consecutive session on Monday as central European currencies stayed on a downward slope, with markets looking for new clues on the pace of monetary easing in the region.

The Polish and Romanian central banks were due to meet this week, following rate cuts in the Czech Republic and Hungary last week.

On Monday, Poland's preliminary inflation was a touch higher than expected. The country's rate setters have been on hold since last year when they cut borrowing costs twice in quick succession.

The Polish central bank (NBP) announces its rates decision on Wednesday, followed by a news conference from the governor the following day.

"The press conference on Thursday may provide more insights into the possible timing of a rate cut," Erste Group Bank said in a note.

"Recently, there have been increasing voices from MPC members suggesting that the NBP may resume its monetary easing as early as March 2025," they said.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= had fallen 0.2% to 4.279 per euro by mid-morning as central European currencies failed to take advantage of a softer dollar.

Stocks in the region also mostly fell, following in the direction of European peers.

In Romania, the central bank meets on Friday and is expected by most to stay on hold after two previous cuts, as it assesses a high deficit and the inflationary impact of tax hikes in the pipeline. The leu EURRON= was steady at 4.9756 per euro.

"Surveys are mixed and the weak economy and falling inflation increase the chance of another rate cut from the current 6.50% (in Romania)," ING said.

On currency markets, however, ING said "the focus remains on the global story".

The crown lost 0.2% to 25.188 to the euro and Hungary's forint EURHUF= extended its losses from last week as it slid 0.2% on the day to trade at 397.60 per euro.

Weaker-than-expected European economic indicators were a major factor in the weakening of the forint, MBH Bank said in a note.

The European Commission released data on Friday which showed an euro zone economic sentiment deteriorated in September, while a poorer economic outlook published last Thursday in Germany, the region's biggest trade partner, also put some pressure on markets.



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1119 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.1880

25.1450

-0.17%

-1.93%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

397.6000

396.9000

-0.18%

-3.63%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2790

4.2720

-0.16%

+1.53%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9756

4.9755

-0.00%

-0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0000

117.0800

+0.07%

+0.21%

Note: daily change

calculated from


1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1616.01

1609.8600

+0.38%

+14.28%

Budapest

.BUX

74358.86

74510.83

-0.20%

+22.66%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2341.02

2382.95

-1.76%

-0.08%

Bucharest

.BETI

17633.69

17685.61

-0.29%

+14.72%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.1900

0.0090

+107bps

-2bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.3100

-0.0590

+132bps

-9bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.6760

0.0130

+151bps

-2bps

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.6840

0.0290

+257bps

+0bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.9060

0.0200

+291bps

-1bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.2620

-0.0180

+309bps

-5bps








FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS






3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.71

3.42

3.11

4.19

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.30

5.89

5.39

6.32

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.77

5.39

4.73

5.85

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices




**************************************************************




Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri

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