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FX drifts after strong showing for Harris in U.S. debate



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-FX drifts after strong showing for Harris in U.S. debate</title></head><body>

By Alan Charlish

WARSAW, Sept 11 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were moving sideways in Wednesday morning trade, as investors digested a U.S. presidential debate and looked ahead to an interest rate decision from the European Central Bank.

Democratic candidate Kamala Harris put her Republican rival Donald Trump on the defensive in a combative presidential debate on Tuesday with a stream of attacks on his fitness for office, his support of abortion restrictions and his myriad legal woes.

"Trump is widely considered to be dangerous for emerging market currencies because of protectionism so (a strong debate performance) could have been a potential negative for CEE FX," said Piotr Poplawski, senior economist at ING.

"But since we see... Harris winning the debate, which is what's in the polls, we have seen a very muted market impact."

Poplawski said markets were also looking ahead to an ECB rate decision on Thursday, which is expected to see the deposit rate cut by 25 basis points to 3.25%.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was 0.07% weaker against the euro at 4.2855, while the Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.04% weaker at 25.088.

In Hungary, the forint EURHUF= was 0.10% firmer at 396.40, as investors waited for central bank minutes.

The Hungarian central bank paused its easing cycle in August after 15 consecutive cuts totalling 1,125 basis points, but left the door open to further easing depending on inflation developments and the policy course of major central banks.

In Poland, the finance ministry was due to sell bonds worth 6-8 billion zlotys in its first auction since the government presented its 2025 draft budget, which sees the general deficit rising to 5.5% of GDP.

"Since Poland showed a very expansive fiscal budget for 2025, I don't think we are going to see all that much interest from foreign investors in Polish bonds because the risk is quite substantial," said Poplawski.




CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1109 CET






CURRENCIES







Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




trade

close

change

in 2024

EURCZK=

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.0880

25.0780

-0.04%

-1.54%

EURHUF=

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

396.4000

396.8000

+0.10%

-3.33%

EURPLN=

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2855

4.2825

-0.07%

+1.38%

EURRON=

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9745

4.9735

-0.02%

-0.00%

EURRSD=

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9200

117.0000

+0.07%

+0.28%


Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET












Latest

Previous

Daily

Change





close

change

in 2024

.PX

Prague

.PX

1573.03

1581.5300

-0.54%

+11.25%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

71966.70

71742.77

+0.31%

+18.72%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2273.09

2307.54

-1.49%

-2.98%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

17413.11

17472.79

-0.34%

+13.28%













Spread

Daily






vs Bund

change in


Czech Republic





spread

CZ2YT=RR

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.2500

-0.0190

+110bps

+3bps

CZ5YT=RR

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.4730

0.0020

+150bps

+4bps

CZ10YT=RR

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.6750

-0.0240

+156bps

+1bps


Poland






PL2YT=RR

2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.6380

-0.0700

+248bps

-3bps

PL5YT=RR

5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.9880

-0.0620

+301bps

-2bps

PL10YT=RR

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.2670

-0.0380

+316bps

+0bps










FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS







3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank


Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.85

3.48

3.14

4.33


Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.25

5.73

5.20

6.49


Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.74

5.33

4.77

5.85


Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************





Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw and Krisztina Than in Budapest; Editing by Ros Russell

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