French equities lacking long-term visibility
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FRENCH EQUITIES LACKING LONG-TERM VISIBILITY
58 days and counting...
That's how long France has been without a functioning government after the second round of the legislative elections in July, and the political paralysis is having an impact on French equities.
While Germany's DAX .GDAXI and the pan-European STOXX 600 .STOXX recently hit new peaks, France's CAC 40 .FCHI remains 7.3% below its record from May.
Since President Macron called the election in June, the index is down 4.4%. The DAX is up 1.8% in the same timeframe. France's mid-caps .CACMD are performing worse, down 8%.
"France's current political paralysis means a lack of longer-term visibility around French equities," says Gilles Guibout, head of European equity strategies at AXA Investment Managers.
Macron remains in discussions with candidates to select a new PM, with a new government leader close to being announced, sources and media said on Sunday.
"Once a new government is announced and the 2025 budget plan is finalised, this should provide us with greater clarity, in turn allowing a market recovery," Guibout adds.
But there are opportunities in some sectors with more international exposure, Guibout adds, noting that 85% of CAC 40 companies' revenues are generated outside of France.
"For large companies such as LVMH, L'Oréal, Pernod, Dassault Sytemes, Saint Gobain, Essilor and Sanofi, developments in the U.S. or China are more important, given their global GDP weighting," Guibout says.
On the other hand, Guibout thinks sectors with greater exposure to regulation and developments in bond spreads, such as utilities or financials, could experience more short-term sensitivity to the ongoing uncertainty.
(Samuel Indyk)
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