Forint retreats from two-week high as FX give back gains
PRAGUE, Sept 23 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint retreated from a two-week high on Monday and the Czech crown also pulled back ahead of central bank meetings this week likely to deliver continued interest rate cuts.
Central Europe's currencies largely ignored a weaker dollar, which usually gives a boost to FX markets in the region. Instead, a trader said the forint was seeing profit-taking after gains in seven of the past eight sessions.
Investors were also eyeing a central bank meeting on Tuesday where a Reuters poll of analysts expects the National Bank of Hungary to cut its base rate by another 25 basis points to 6.50%. The bank had held steady on rates last month following 15 consecutive rate reductions.
In the Czech Republic, the central bank is also expected to cut by 25 bps, maintaining its pace of cuts after policymakers slowed their easing cycle in August.
Both banks, which started reducing rates already last year, are convening after the U.S. Federal Reserve began its easing cycle last week with a larger than usual rate cut. The European Central Bank has also cut interest rates in recent months.
"In Hungary, the central bank took a pause in August, but after the ECB and the (Federal Reserve) meetings, we expect another 25-bp rate reduction ... in Hungary," Erste Group Bank said in a preview.
"Although August’s headline inflation surprised to the downside, the inflation outlook has not really changed."
The forint EURHUF= had fallen 0.3% to 394.25 per euro by 0842 GMT on Monday. The crown EURCZK= lost 0.2% to 25.097 to the euro, also correcting after a weekly gain last week, its first since August.
The latter's markets were also taking in news that President Petr Pavel would appoint economist Jakub Seidler to the Czech National Bank board from December.
Bank CSOB analysts said this appointment would not change expectations of continued interest rate cuts toward the neutral rate level of around 3.50%.
A Reuters poll forecast the bank would cut by 25 bps to 4.25% when it meets on Wednesday.
Polish interest rates have been on hold since initial cuts toward the end of 2023. The zloty has also traded close to multi-year highs in recent weeks and months, and analysts expect it to be supported going forward. The currency EURPLN= traded off 0.2% at 4.279 to the euro.
"In our opinion, if the zloty does not receive support from the continued downward trend of the USD, it will be difficult to break the support at 4.2650 EUR/PLN," bank PKO BP said.
"However, global trends support the current strength of the zloty and so far we do not see clear signals that this will change in the near future."
Among stocks, central Europe's bourses mostly bucked the trend of higher equity markets.
CVC Capital Partners plans to float Polish convenience store chain Zabka on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the company said on Monday, in what will be one of the largest initial public offerings (IPO) in Poland this decade.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1042 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.0970 | 25.0560 | -0.16% | -1.58% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.2500 | 393.0500 | -0.30% | -2.81% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2790 | 4.2720 | -0.16% | +1.53% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9740 | 4.9740 | +0.00% | +0.01% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9600 | 117.0800 | +0.10% | +0.24% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1580.30 | 1587.2600 | -0.44% | +11.76% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73099.65 | 73119.59 | -0.03% | +20.59% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2261.35 | 2279.98 | -0.82% | -3.48% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17674.01 | 17633.89 | +0.23% | +14.98% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2260 | -0.0120 | +107bps | +8bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4220 | 0.0220 | +142bps | +11bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7470 | -0.0150 | +160bps | +5bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.6500 | -0.0150 | +249bps | +8bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.0080 | -0.0490 | +301bps | +3bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.3300 | -0.0610 | +318bps | +1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.72 | 3.44 | 3.14 | 4.29 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.05 | 5.67 | 5.23 | 6.44 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.75 | 5.33 | 4.68 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest, Alan Charlish in Warsaw; editing by Mark Heinrich
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