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Forint off lows; leu steady, yields jump after Romanian presidential vote



<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><title>CEE MARKETS-Forint off lows; leu steady, yields jump after Romanian presidential vote</title></head><body>

Adds Romanian bonds, analyst comment in paragraphs 2, 5-7

PRAGUE, Nov 25 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint recovered from nearly two-year lows on Monday, while Romania's leu was steady but bond yields climbed as weekend polls unexpectedly sent a hard-right NATO critic and centre-right opposition party leader into a presidential run-off vote.

Romania's bond yields grew, with benchmark domestic 10-year paper RO10YT=RR bid at 7.5%, up 23 basis points and the highest in 19 months. Euro-denominated bonds also jumped, with an issue due 2040 rising 26 bps to bid at a yield of 6.284%.

The leu EURRON= took first-round presidential election results in stride, trading at 4.977 to the euro.

The weekend voting left hard-right candidate Calin Georgescu and centre-right contender Elena Lasconi set to face each other in a run-off vote threatening Romania's staunchly pro-Ukraine stance.

Parliamentary elections take place next weekend before the 2nd round of the presidential vote.

Capital Economics analysts said Georgescu's lead "raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking, and an anti-NATO foreign policy stance."

"The negative reaction in Romania’s bond market could intensify if far-right parties secure strong support in parliamentary elections" taking place on Dec. 1, they said.

Currencies, under pressure in recent months, got some relief from a U.S. dollar pullback after the pick for the next U.S. Treasury secretary seemed to reassure the bond market about fiscal discipline.

The forint has fallen to its lowest levels since the end of 2022 as a strong dollar hits emerging market assets, tensions in the Ukraine-Russia war rise, and the Hungarian economy sputters.

Last week, Hungary's central bank left its base rate steady at the European Union's joint highest level of 6.50% as the weakened forint leads it to pause a rate-cutting drive.

The forint has been central Europe's worst performer this year, with a 7% fall against the euro, the region's main reference currency, and some analysts have said a further drop could cause rate hikes to be considered.

"We think that a level such as 420.0 or 425.0 in EUR-HUF might well force the central bank's hand in this regard," Commerzbank said.

The forint EURHUF= had inched up a touch to 411.80 to the euro by 1059 GMT after nearing its 23-month low of 412.50 earlier in the session.

Other currencies also edged higher, with the Czech crown EURCZK= and Polish zloty EURPLN= both gaining around 0.1%.

A round of Polish data is due this week, starting with a stronger-than-expected rise in industrial output published on Monday.

"The forecast consensus (this week) does not set the bar too high for the Polish economy," Bank Pekao said ahead of the release.

"A negative surprise (this week) will not change expectations regarding monetary policy - the next cut will not occur until March 2025, which is quite a distant date - but it may take some of the enthusiasm away from investors for Polish assets this week."



CEE MARKETS

SNAPSHOT

AT 1159 CET





CURRENCIES






Latest

Previous

Daily

Change



trade

close

change

in 2024

Czech crown

EURCZK=

25.3350

25.3710

+0.14%

-2.50%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

411.8000

411.9500

+0.04%

-6.95%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.3290

4.3355

+0.15%

+0.36%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

4.9767

4.9776

+0.02%

-0.05%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

116.9400

116.9800

+0.03%

+0.26%

Note: daily change

calculated from



1800 CET










Latest

Previous

Daily

Change




close

change

in 2024

Prague

.PX

1696.39

1697.3500

-0.06%

+19.97%

Budapest

.BUX

79677.51

79551.80

+0.16%

+31.44%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2212.71

2194.06

+0.85%

-5.56%

Bucharest

.BETI

16884.06

17134.54

-1.46%

+9.84%











Spread

Daily





vs Bund

change in

Czech Republic





spread

2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3020

-0.0060

+127bps

-3bps

5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.6160

0.0470

+154bps

+4bps

10-year

CZ10YT=RR

3.8940

NULL

+165bps

#VALUE!

Poland






2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.8660

0.0060

+283bps

-2bps

5-year

PL5YT=RR

5.2050

0.0110

+313bps

+1bps

10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.6050

0.0040

+336bps

+1bps








FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS






3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.72

3.49

3.35

3.90

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR=

6.86

6.48

6.20

6.50

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

5.67

5.11

4.71

5.85

Note: FRA quotes

are for ask prices





**************************************************************














Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest, Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, William Maclean

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