Forint off lows; leu steady, yields jump after Romanian presidential vote
Adds Romanian bonds, analyst comment in paragraphs 2, 5-7
PRAGUE, Nov 25 (Reuters) -Hungary's forint recovered from nearly two-year lows on Monday, while Romania's leu was steady but bond yields climbed as weekend polls unexpectedly sent a hard-right NATO critic and centre-right opposition party leader into a presidential run-off vote.
Romania's bond yields grew, with benchmark domestic 10-year paper RO10YT=RR bid at 7.5%, up 23 basis points and the highest in 19 months. Euro-denominated bonds also jumped, with an issue due 2040 rising 26 bps to bid at a yield of 6.284%.
The leu EURRON= took first-round presidential election results in stride, trading at 4.977 to the euro.
The weekend voting left hard-right candidate Calin Georgescu and centre-right contender Elena Lasconi set to face each other in a run-off vote threatening Romania's staunchly pro-Ukraine stance.
Parliamentary elections take place next weekend before the 2nd round of the presidential vote.
Capital Economics analysts said Georgescu's lead "raises the risk of an abrupt shift towards more populist policymaking, and an anti-NATO foreign policy stance."
"The negative reaction in Romania’s bond market could intensify if far-right parties secure strong support in parliamentary elections" taking place on Dec. 1, they said.
Currencies, under pressure in recent months, got some relief from a U.S. dollar pullback after the pick for the next U.S. Treasury secretary seemed to reassure the bond market about fiscal discipline.
The forint has fallen to its lowest levels since the end of 2022 as a strong dollar hits emerging market assets, tensions in the Ukraine-Russia war rise, and the Hungarian economy sputters.
Last week, Hungary's central bank left its base rate steady at the European Union's joint highest level of 6.50% as the weakened forint leads it to pause a rate-cutting drive.
The forint has been central Europe's worst performer this year, with a 7% fall against the euro, the region's main reference currency, and some analysts have said a further drop could cause rate hikes to be considered.
"We think that a level such as 420.0 or 425.0 in EUR-HUF might well force the central bank's hand in this regard," Commerzbank said.
The forint EURHUF= had inched up a touch to 411.80 to the euro by 1059 GMT after nearing its 23-month low of 412.50 earlier in the session.
Other currencies also edged higher, with the Czech crown EURCZK= and Polish zloty EURPLN= both gaining around 0.1%.
A round of Polish data is due this week, starting with a stronger-than-expected rise in industrial output published on Monday.
"The forecast consensus (this week) does not set the bar too high for the Polish economy," Bank Pekao said ahead of the release.
"A negative surprise (this week) will not change expectations regarding monetary policy - the next cut will not occur until March 2025, which is quite a distant date - but it may take some of the enthusiasm away from investors for Polish assets this week."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1159 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3350 | 25.3710 | +0.14% | -2.50% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 411.8000 | 411.9500 | +0.04% | -6.95% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3290 | 4.3355 | +0.15% | +0.36% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9767 | 4.9776 | +0.02% | -0.05% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9400 | 116.9800 | +0.03% | +0.26% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1696.39 | 1697.3500 | -0.06% | +19.97% |
Budapest | .BUX | 79677.51 | 79551.80 | +0.16% | +31.44% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2212.71 | 2194.06 | +0.85% | -5.56% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 16884.06 | 17134.54 | -1.46% | +9.84% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3020 | -0.0060 | +127bps | -3bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6160 | 0.0470 | +154bps | +4bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.8940 | NULL | +165bps | #VALUE! |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.8660 | 0.0060 | +283bps | -2bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.2050 | 0.0110 | +313bps | +1bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6050 | 0.0040 | +336bps | +1bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.72 | 3.49 | 3.35 | 3.90 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.86 | 6.48 | 6.20 | 6.50 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.67 | 5.11 | 4.71 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest, Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Kirsten Donovan, William Maclean
For related news and prices, click on the codes in brackets:
All emerging market news EMRG CEEU CEE/
Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=
Other news and reports
World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
Official rates GLOBAL/INT Emerging Diary EMRG/DIARY
Top events M/DIARY Diaries DIARY Diaries Index IND/DIARY
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.