Forint leads FX losses, crown lower after inflation data
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Nov 11 (Reuters) -Central European currencies eased on Monday, with the Hungarian forint leading losses as a stronger U.S. dollar returned pressure, while the crown moved little after Czech inflation accelerated.
Markets were facing thinner liquidity with a public holiday in Poland and Veterans Day in the United States.
The forint EURHUF= had eased 0.4% to trade at 408.05 per euro by 0920 GMT, following wild swings last week after Donald Trump's U.S. election victory.
The Hungarian currency had dropped as far as 412.50 last week, its lowest level since December 2022, before rebounding.
"The forint is weakening as the dollar is firming, but it is still stronger than it was before the election," an FX trader in Budapest said.
Central European currencies have recovered ground since the swings seen after the U.S. election but will continue to face pressure from a stronger dollar and uncertainty over the impacts of potential Trump policies like tariffs.
ING said it was keeping a "bearish bias" for the region.
"We view Thursday's market correction and rally as a post-election positioning adjustment but believe CEE cannot escape the negative global outlook," it said.
In the Czech Republic, the crown EURCZK= edged down 0.1% to 25.272 per euro, still trading near mid-October levels where it firmed last Thursday.
Data on Monday showed Czech headline inflation picked up to a rate of 2.8% year-on-year in October, its highest since April.
The Czech National Bank extended its year-long monetary easing campaign last week with a 25 basis-point interest rate cut on Thursday, but cautioned about further steps due to inflation pressures.
"The prospect of further growth in inflation, which is heading towards or slightly above the 3% mark, will probably make central bankers more cautious. We assume that the CNB will proceed with further rate increases only in the first quarter of next year," UniCredit economist Patrik Rozumbersky said.
The Romanian leu EURRON= was little moved, trading at 4.9745, within the narrow corridor it has remained in since early September.
Romania's central bank held its benchmark interest rate ROINTR=ECI at 6.50% on Friday, warning inflation will not return within target before early 2026. The bank was scheduled to release new forecasts for 2024 and 2025 later on Monday.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1020 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2800 | 25.2500 | -0.12% | -2.29% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 408.0500 | 406.2500 | -0.44% | -6.09% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3350 | 4.3270 | -0.18% | +0.22% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9745 | 4.9755 | +0.02% | -0.00% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9300 | 116.9800 | +0.04% | +0.27% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1670.14 | 1665.1000 | +0.30% | +18.11% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 76821.26 | 76250.51 | +0.75% | +26.73% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2298.30 | 2298.30 | +0.00% | -1.91% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17482.94 | 17374.51 | +0.62% | +13.74% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3610 | 0.0030 | +119bps | +2bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6680 | -0.0370 | +149bps | -1bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.9750 | 0.0030 | +164bps | +3bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9210 | 0.0010 | +275bps | +2bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.3220 | -0.0020 | +314bps | +2bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6350 | -0.0520 | +330bps | -2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.74 | 3.52 | 3.35 | 3.95 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.44 | 6.22 | 6.00 | 6.51 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.71 | 5.21 | 4.88 | 5.84 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague, editing by Ed Osmond
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