Forint leads FX gains but pressure lingers
PRAGUE, Nov 13 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies firmed on Wednesday to come off recent lows, but stayed under pressure from a stronger dollar in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= gained 0.4% to 409.20 to the euro and stayed just off its 23-month low of 412.50 hit last week.
"Uncertainty about America and Trump's presidency shows in the rate of all emerging currencies," a Budapest-based trader said.
"Markets are awaiting U.S. inflation data, but even that is not very important now when the real question is what economic and other policies Donald Trump will introduce next year."
Until then, the trader expects the forint to move between 400 and 413 per euro.
Emerging market currencies have been under pressure since Trump's win as the dollar strengthened on expectations his tariff and immigration policies could push up inflation, limiting scope for U.S. interest rate cuts.
Tariffs could also be a blow to central Europe's more export-dependent economies.
Elsewhere in markets, Poland's zloty EURPLN= was steady at 4.347 per euro and the Czech crown EURCZK= edged up 0.3% to 25.33 to the euro.
Polish central banker Cezary Kochalski told ISBnews in comments published on Wednesday that there may be room to cut interest rates in March 2025.
Poland, unlike Hungary or the Czech Republic, has seen interest rates unchanged for the past year after two cuts in 2023.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1201 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3300 | 25.3990 | +0.27% | -2.48% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 409.2000 | 410.9500 | +0.43% | -6.36% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3470 | 4.3485 | +0.03% | -0.06% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9765 | 4.9765 | +0.00% | -0.04% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.8800 | 116.9800 | +0.09% | +0.31% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1666.28 | 1668.3400 | -0.12% | +17.84% |
Budapest | .BUX | 77180.93 | 76966.70 | +0.28% | +27.32% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2232.92 | 2255.73 | -1.01% | -4.70% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17718.84 | 17677.85 | +0.23% | +15.27% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3740 | 0.0030 | +122bps | -2bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7250 | 0.0230 | +151bps | -2bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0160 | 0.0180 | +163bps | -1bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0110 | -0.0050 | +286bps | -3bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.3850 | -0.0040 | +317bps | -4bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.7610 | -0.0260 | +338bps | -6bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.72 | 3.54 | 3.35 | 3.94 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.93 | 6.74 | 6.49 | 6.50 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.71 | 5.22 | 4.89 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw, Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala
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