Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying
Nov 25 (Reuters) -U.S. central bankers cut short-term borrowing costs by half a percentage point in September and by a quarter of a percentage point in November, dialing back policy restraint in light of progress toward their 2% inflation goal and a cooling labor market. The question facing Federal Reserve policymakers now is how fast and how much farther they need to reduce rates.
Here is a look at comments from Fed policymakers since the last rate-setting decision, sorting them under the labels "dove" and "hawk" as a rough shorthand for their monetary policy leanings, as best as can be figured. A dove is more focused on risks to the labor market and may want to cut rates more quickly, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation and may be more cautious about rate cuts.
The designations are based on comments and published remarks; for more, click on the photos in this graphic. For a breakdown of how Reuters' counts in each category have changed, please scroll to the bottom of this story.
Dove | Dovish | Centrist | Hawkish | Hawk |
Lisa Cook, Governor, permanent voter: "The totality of the data suggests that a disinflationary trajectory is still in place and that the labor market is gradually cooling ... I still see the direction of the appropriate policy rate path to be downward." Nov. 20, 2024 | Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, permanent voter: "If the data let us go a little slower, that seems a smart thing to do." Nov. 14, 2024 | Michelle Bowman, Governor, permanent voter: "We have seen considerable progress in lowering inflation since early 2023, but progress seems to have stalled in recent months. ... I would prefer to proceed cautiously in bringing the policy rate down to better assess how far we are from the endpoint." Nov. 20, 2024 | ||
Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, 2025 voter: "I think we are going to be looking at rates coming down over the next year along the line the 'dot-plot' said." Nov. 15, 2024 | John Williams, New York Fed President, permanent voter: "The disinflationary process will continue ... My guess is the fed funds rate will be lower by the end of next year than it is today." Nov. 21, 2024 | Thomas Barkin, Richmond Fed President, 2024 voter: "I'm not hearing the kind of inflation we've seen in the past. And that gives me hope that as we get through the first quarter, those numbers will come down." Nov. 15, 2024 | ||
Philip Jefferson, Vice Chair: No public comments since Fed's most recent policy meeting. | Jeffrey Schmid, Kansas City Fed President, 2025 voter: "It remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle." Nov. 13, 2024 | |||
Michael Barr, Vice Chair of Supervision, permanent voter: No public comments since Fed’s most recent policy meeting. | Alberto Musalem, St. Louis Fed President, 2025 voter: "The risk of inflation ceasing to converge toward 2%, or moving higher, has risen, while the risk of an unwelcome deterioration in the labor market has remained unchanged or possibly fallen." Nov. 13, 2024 | |||
Christopher Waller, Governor, permanent voter: No public comments since Fed’s most recent policy meeting. | Lorie Logan, Dallas Fed President, 2026 voter: "I believe it's best to proceed with caution." Nov. 15, 2024 | |||
Adriana Kugler, Governor, permanent voter: "If any risks arise that stall progress or reaccelerate inflation, it would be appropriate to pause our policy rate cuts. But if the labor market slows down suddenly, it would be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the policy rate." Nov. 14, 2024 | Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President, 2026 voter: "We've got another month or six weeks of data to analyze before we make any decisions." Nov. 13, 2024 | |||
Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President, 2024 voter: No public comments since Fed’s most recent policy meeting. | ||||
Raphael Bostic, Atlanta Fed President, 2024 voter: No public comments since Fed’s most recent policy meeting. | ||||
Susan Collins, Boston Fed President, 2025 voter: "I expect additional adjustments will likely be appropriate over time, to move the policy rate gradually from its current restrictive stance back into a more neutral range." Nov. 20, 2024 | ||||
Patrick Harker, Philadelphia Fed President, 2026 voter: No public comments since Fed’s most recent policy meeting. |
Notes: Fed policymakers reduced the policy rate in November to the 4.50%-4.75% range. Projections released in September showed most policymakers expect to reduce the rate to the 3.25%-3.50% range by the end of next year, but markets are now betting on far fewer rate cuts given President-elect Donald Trump's expected plans for tariff hikes and tax cuts, and a raft of mostly stronger-than-expected economic data that suggests rates may not need to be reduced that rapidly. The Cleveland Fed's new president, Beth Hammack, started her job on Aug. 21 and has not made any public comments on monetary policy. She is not included in this dove-hawk matrix.
The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chief and vice chairs, have permanent votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which are held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at the meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for one year at a time on a rotating schedule.
Reuters over time has shifted policymaker designations based on fresh comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters count of policymakers in each category, heading into recent Fed meetings.
FOMC Date | Dove | Dovish | Centrist | Hawkish | Hawk |
Dec. '24 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 0 |
Nov. '24 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 0 |
Sept '24 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 0 |
May through July '24 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 1 |
March '24 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 1 |
Jan '24 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
Dec '23 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 1 |
Oct/Nov '23 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 |
Sept '23 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
June '23 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
March '23 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
Dec '22 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 2 |
Reporting by Ann Saphir, Michael S. Derby and Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea Ricci and Paul Simao
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