EU maize crop set to shrink as Romania drought overshadows rain boost in west
Romanian maize hurt by scorching heat, lack of rain
Losses in southeast Europe could push EU output down
Heavy rain that hurt wheat helps maize further west
By Gus Trompiz
PARIS, Aug 23 (Reuters) -The European Union is heading for a smaller maize crop this year after drought and heatwaves ravaged crops in Romania, offsetting a rain boost to growing conditions further west, analysts said.
Lower production could make the EU, a net maize (corn) importer, more reliant on foreign supplies this season, particularly as the bloc is also expected to reap below-average volumes of wheat and barley, which can be used for livestock feed like maize.
Forecasters have sharply cut their outlook for the upcoming EU maize crop to around 60-61 million metric tons, now below last year's output of about 63 million though above 53 million in 2022 when drought spread across Europe.
"The situation in eastern Europe is very tough like two years ago," Argus analyst Maxence Devillers said. "Western Europe is turning out okay and that is salvaging the situation compared with 2022."
Romania, which previously vied with France as the EU's biggest maize producer, has been caught up in unrelenting heat and dryness in the Black Sea region that has withered maize fields in Ukraine and Russia too.
Some analysts expect Romanian maize output to drop by around 30% from near 11 million tons last year, with Argus seeing 2024 production at 7.5 million and local firm AgroBrane at 7.7 million.
"It's quite challenging to grow corn in a furnace," AgroBrane's Gabriel Razi said, noting crops faced 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) heat during pollination in July.
"It's one of the most challenging seasons in agronomical terms that Romanian farmers went through," he told a webinar held by Ukraine's Trend&Hedge Club.
Harsh summer weather has also hurt maize in parts of Bulgaria and Hungary, analysts said.
In France, there was uncertainty over yields after a damp spring hampered planting while the south has faced high temperatures since late July.
But favourable moisture levels, after the heavy rain that hurt the wheat crop, were keeping maize in mostly good condition. An increase in area, meanwhile, should ensure higher output in France than last year.
"In France the situation is mixed but production should be good," Devillers said, estimating the crop will rise to just over 14 million tons, slightly above the farm ministry's initial forecast.
Ample rain should underpin yields elsewhere in Europe, though reduced planting may push production down.
In Poland, crop conditions are promising but lower planting means the maize harvest could shrink 13% from last year to 7.6 million tons, said Sparks Polska analyst Wojtek Sabaranski.
Polish harvesting is set for an early start from mid-September, Sabaranski added.
In Germany, the grain maize crop will fall by 2% to 4.41 million tons, the country's farming association estimated on Thursday, compared to a much steeper 15% drop in the rain-damaged winter wheat crop.
Reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris, Michael Hogan in Hamburg and Nigel Hunt in London; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta
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