Czech crown holds off low, other C.Europe currencies linger in holiday trade
PRAGUE, Nov 1 (Reuters) -The Czech crown held off a nearly three-month low on Friday, little moved by data showing a slowing manufacturing decline as focus turned toward a central bank rate meeting next week, while central Europe's other currencies hovered as local markets were closed for holidays.
Hungary's forint was just off 22-month lows hit this week and Poland's zloty was hanging around a 4-1/2 month low. Both were a touch down on the day amid holiday trading.
A Reuters poll on Friday forecast central European currencies rising to stronger levels in the coming months after recent weakness caused by global market moves before U.S. elections. But the relief will be limited, forecasts showed.
"There still seems to be no room for stabilisation here in the near term and we expect CEE to remain under pressure at least until the U.S. election," ING said in a note on Friday.
The dollar has firmed on bets that Republican candidate Donald Trump could win next week's U.S. election. That dollar strength has weighed on appetite for riskier emerging market assets.
On Friday, the crown EURCZK= dipped less than 0.1% on the day to 25.335 to the euro. The Reuters poll saw the crown firming to 25.10 over the next three months and leading gains over the next year.
The crown got some support on Friday after data from S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicated manufacturing activity last month declined at its slowest pace since June 2022. But some analysts said it was still too early to cheer amid declining factory orders and as manufacturing remains the main drag on an overall economic recovery.
Markets were also watching a Czech central bank policy meeting next week amid chances policymakers will continue to cut interest rates.
Czech rate-setter Jan Prochazka told Reuters last week that the bank could continue easing monetary policy amid weaker growth abroad and a slow domestic demand recovery, but must be mindful of inflation hotspots.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1011 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3350 | 25.3220 | -0.05% | -2.50% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 408.5000 | 408.2000 | -0.07% | -6.20% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3570 | 4.3535 | -0.08% | -0.29% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9748 | 4.9740 | -0.02% | -0.01% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9600 | 117.0500 | +0.08% | +0.24% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1652.74 | 1639.2600 | +0.82% | +16.88% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73865.96 | 73865.96 | +0.00% | +21.85% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2205.47 | 2205.47 | +0.00% | -5.87% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17487.68 | 17439.09 | +0.28% | +13.77% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4020 | -0.0200 | +110bps | -1bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7600 | -0.0010 | +148bps | -2bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0630 | 0.0020 | +165bps | -3bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.1750 | NULL | +287bps | #VALUE! |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.5850 | 0.0020 | +330bps | -1bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.9060 | -0.0250 | +349bps | -5bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.87 | 3.61 | 3.45 | 4.06 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.59 | 6.52 | 6.41 | 6.47 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.75 | 5.38 | 5.07 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Editing by Angus MacSwan
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