Currencies stable as investors digest inflation data
WARSAW, Aug 13 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were stable or slightly up on Tuesday as recent inflation data lowered expectations for further interest rates cuts.
The Czech crown EURCZK= was unchanged at 25.1890 per euro at 0836 GMT.
On Monday, data showed Czech inflation ticked up, topping forecasts in July at 2.2%, underpinning expectations that the central bank, which next meets on Sept. 25, will hold its key policy rate steady at 4.65% to keep inflation on target.
Similarly, Hungary's headline and core consumer price indexes came in above estimates, heightening investors' expectations for a pause in the central bank's rate-cutting in August.
The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) cut its borrowing costs HUINT.ECI= by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.75% in July, and markets expect one or two more cuts later this year.
Hungary's forint EURHUF= was up 0.3% at 393.05 per euro.
"We are trading in range, slightly firming after last week's inflation data came in above expectations, tempering market expectations for a cut during the central bank's next policy meeting," a local currency trader said.
"However, if the forint continues to gain, the central bank might use it as an opportunity to deliver a cut, but I don't think the forint will go past the level of 392."
The Polish zloty EURPLN= was up 0.1% at 4.2975, while analysts said the currency was particularly sensitive to global markets' moves due to low liquidity related to a national holiday on Thursday.
While global sentiment remained unfavourable for emerging markets, high interest rates continued to support the zloty, Bank Pekao said in a note.
"The coming days on the Polish bond market should bring about a continuation of the slight upward trend in yields, but the situation is uncertain," it said.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1036 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1890 | 25.1840 | -0.02% | -1.94% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 393.0500 | 394.1500 | +0.28% | -2.51% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2975 | 4.3020 | +0.10% | +1.09% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9766 | 4.9768 | +0.00% | -0.05% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9000 | 117.0000 | +0.09% | +0.30% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1556.33 | 1558.3200 | -0.13% | +10.06% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 72083.93 | 72352.07 | -0.37% | +18.91% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2337.13 | 2335.65 | +0.06% | -0.25% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 18133.12 | 17998.59 | +0.75% | +17.97% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4760 | -0.0040 | +109bps | +1bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.5390 | 0.0010 | +140bps | +0bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7740 | -0.0050 | +155bps | -1bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.8460 | 0.0120 | +246bps | +3bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 4.9880 | -0.0710 | +285bps | -7bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.2400 | -0.0140 | +301bps | -2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.88 | 3.50 | 3.24 | 4.42 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.76 | 6.31 | 5.54 | 6.55 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.70 | 5.35 | 4.89 | 5.86 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** | ||||||
Reporting by Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw, Anita Komuves and Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Editing by Tomasz Janowski
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