Currencies ease as dollar firms, markets await ECB rate decision
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Oct 16 (Reuters) -Central European currencies were a touch weaker on Wednesday, hovering near recently hit lows, as the U.S. dollar strengthened and investors awaited a rate decision and comments from the European Central Bank (ECB).
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.06% softer versus the euro at 400.3, trading on the weaker side of the psychologically important level of 400 once again after briefly strengthening past it in the previous session.
"The forint is weakening a bit, but it is holding up pretty well if we look at how much the dollar firmed," an FX trader in Budapest said.
The dollar hovered near two-month peaks versus major peers, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest interest rate cuts and a rise in betting odds for a second Donald Trump presidency.
ECB rate cut expectations supported the forint, traders said, as it would change the rate differential to the advantage of the Hungarian currency. The ECB's decision is due on Thursday, with markets pricing in a 25-basis-point cut.
Hungarian central bank Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag last week flagged a likely pause in the easing of the bank's main interest rate, which remains the European Union's highest alongside Romania's.
Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= eased 0.12% to 25.25 per euro, giving up some of its recent gains and drifting back towards two-month lows hit earlier this month.
The Polish zloty EURPLN=, the region's best performer so far this year, was 0.05% lower versus the euro at 4.294.
A possible conflict with the European Union over migration could, however, pose a risk for the currency, Commerzbank said.
"The zloty had enjoyed a sustained rally since the time of the general election on the assumption that Donald Tusk had enough EU connections to promptly free all the EU funds," it added.
"The negation of this idea under practical political constraints comes as another negative for the zloty’s valuation."
Prime Minister Tusk said on Saturday that Poland plans to temporarily suspend the right to asylum as part of a strategy to limit illegal migration amid tensions with Belarus.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 0959 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2500 | 25.2190 | -0.12% | -2.17% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 400.3000 | 400.0500 | -0.06% | -4.28% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2940 | 4.2920 | -0.05% | +1.18% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9760 | 4.9764 | +0.01% | -0.03% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9400 | 117.0300 | +0.08% | +0.26% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1603.01 | 1608.5700 | -0.35% | +13.37% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 74561.84 | 74736.55 | -0.23% | +23.00% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2327.30 | 2322.68 | +0.20% | -0.67% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17502.20 | 17507.68 | -0.03% | +13.86% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3490 | 0.0100 | +115bps | +3bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6260 | -0.0360 | +156bps | -1bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.8980 | -0.0190 | +170bps | +1bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9010 | -0.0220 | +270bps | -1bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.1980 | -0.0160 | +313bps | +1bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.4550 | -0.0650 | +325bps | -4bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.77 | 3.46 | 3.26 | 4.15 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.18 | 5.89 | 5.96 | 6.34 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.76 | 5.41 | 4.93 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Reporting by Anita Komuves in Budapest; Editing by Sumana Nandy
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