Copper to hover below key $10,000 level in 2025
Copper price set to average $9,898/T in 2025
Analysts change 2025 aluminium forecast to surplus
Average 2025 nickel price seen up 10% from current levels
By Eric Onstad and Anushree Mukherjee
LONDON/BENGALURU, Oct 29 (Reuters) -Copper prices are unlikely to mount a sustained rally next year, held back by lacklustre stimulus in China and a shallower deficit than previously forecast, a Reuters poll showed. COMMODITYPOLL01
Copper surged to a record in May above $11,100 a metric ton and after months of losses managed to rebound to just above $10,000 in September on optimism about U.S. interest rate cuts and measures promised by China to boost its ailing economy.
But investors have been disappointed over the modest attempts to revive the economy in China - which accounts for about half of global copper demand.
"Chinese support measures are much more about stabilising the economy than stimulating it, which should likewise limit the upside to industrial metals demand in general," said Carsten Menke at Julius Baer in Zurich.
"U.S. interest rates are still in restrictive territory, so any positive impact on the economy should be limited."
The cash copper CMCU0 contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) should average $9,898 per ton next year, a median forecast of 30 analysts showed.
Analysts trimmed their 2025 consensus forecast from $10,022 in the previous poll in July, but the forecast is still 5.3% higher than the closing price on Monday.
Analysts also adjusted forecasts to show a smaller market deficit next year at 147,500 tons, compared to a shortfall of 165,715 tons in the July poll.
ALUMINIUM SURPLUS
Aluminium has been the top performer on the LME over the past three months after rallying to a near two-year peak in May, partly due to high costs of raw material alumina.
But many investors are wary about strong output, especially in the world's biggest aluminium producer China, bolstered by firm demand and steady hydropower supply in Yunnan province.
"We see aluminium in a small surplus in both 2024 and 2025, leaving limited further upside to prices if current conditions persist," said Amy Sergeant at Morgan Stanley.
"China's aluminium output continues to surprise to the upside."
LME cash aluminium CMAL0 is expected to average $2,568 a ton in 2025, down 1.7% from Monday's closing price for the metal used in packaging, transport and construction.
Analysts flipped their consensus to a surplus of 100,000 tons in 2025 from a deficit of 148,500 tons in the previous poll.
NICKEL TO BOTTOM
Nickel is the worst performing LME metal this year, burdened by heavy output from top nickel producer Indonesia.
"More shutdowns and cutbacks are likely to enable a bottom in prices. Nickel should perform better in 2025," said independent analyst Robin Bhar.
The main use for nickel is in stainless steel, but its biggest growth area is for electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
Analysts expect the LME cash nickel CMNI0 to average $17,288 a ton in 2025, up 9.8% from Monday's closing price.
They expect the global nickel market to show a surplus of 130,900 tons in 2025, down from oversupply of 140,050 tons that analysts forecast in July.
Reporting by Eric Onstad in London and Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru; editing by Jason Neely
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