CFRA SETS 2025 END S&P 500 TARGET AT 6,585
U.S. equity index futures turn green
Initial jobless claims 213k vs 220k estimate
Euro STOXX 600 index ~unchanged
Dollar ~flat; gold up; crude up ~2%; bitcoin up >3%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges down to ~4.39%
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CFRA SETS 2025 YEAR-END S&P 500 TARGET AT 6,585
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, has established a year-end 2025 S&P 500 index .SPX target of 6,585. This level represents a price gain of just over 7% from CFRA's expected 2024 closing level of 6,145.
CFRA's 2024 year-end target is about 4% above the S&P 500's 5,917.11 close on Wednesday. The 2025 year-end target is just over 11% above Wednesday's finish.
"This new target incorporates fundamental, technical, and historical considerations, influenced by a 2.4% projected growth in U.S. real GDP and a 13% rise in S&P 500 operating earnings, supported by a continued decline in inflation readings and interest rates," writes Stovall in a note out on Wednesday.
According to Stovall, historical returns during the third year of bull markets following two successive years of double-digit increases, combined with elevated valuations relative to 10-year averages, temper CFRA's enthusiasm, leading to the below-average projected full-year price rise.
Meanwhile, Stovall is also bracing for volatility, as he says that nearly 90% of first years of presidential terms since 1949 experienced selloffs in excess of 5%, and averaging 17.5%.
(Terence Gabriel)
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