Buybacks support financial share prices, but for how long?
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BUYBACKS SUPPORT FINANCIAL SHARE PRICES, BUT FOR HOW LONG?
Buybacks have have been all the rage in Europe's financial sector recently, with banks specifically set to return a record sum to shareholders this year.
It is one factor behind bank shares' relative outperfomance. A basket of European banks .SX7P has surged 19% in 2024, outperforming the STOXX 600's .STOXX 8.8% rise.
Analysts at Citi Research expect banks to announce 79 billion euros of dividends and execute 46 billion euros in buybacks in 2024. They see diversified financials announcing 12 billion euros in dividends and executing 2 billion euros in buybacks, while for insurers those figures stand at 34 billion euros and 11 billion euros.
Recently the likes of Dutch bank ABN AMRO ABNd.AS, Spanish bank BBVA BBVA.MC and insurer Swiss Life SLHN.S have all completed their respective buybacks. Others, like Sabadell SABE.MC and Unicredit CRDI.MI, have announced new ones.
Share buybacks are typically supportive of a company's share price.
From Citi's calculations, the names for which buybacks are currently providing the most technical support include Dutch bank ING INGA.AS, FTSE-listed bank Standard Chartered STAN.L and Dutch insurer Aegon AEGN.AS.
But all good things come to an end, and the latter two are expected to see support end in the coming months.
"Technical buyback support" is also expected to end soon for Spanish bank Caixa CABK.MC, Swedish private equity firm EQT EQT and UK insurer Aviva AV.L.
Overall, the analysts have a market weight rating on banks and see the most upside for UK banks.
(Lucy Raitano)
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