Brokerages see 'uncertain' 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs
Updates with Societe Generale forecast for U.S. 10-year yield target, FX forecasts and global GDP; Morgan Stanley's forecast for FX and U.S. 10-year yield; Berenberg's and BNP Paribas' inflation, GDP, U.S. 10-year yield targets and FX forecasts; J.P.Morgan's S&P 500 target
Nov 29 (Reuters) -Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.
World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.
Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 6400 | 3.80% | 1.04 | 157.0 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 6500 | 4.25% | 1.03(next 12-months) | 159(next 12-months) | 7.50(next 12-months) |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 6600 | 4.00% | 1.12 | 145 | 7.50 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 6500-6700 | 4.50%-5.00% | 0.98-1.02 | 158-162 | |
Societe Generale | 4.50% (Q4'25) | 1.09 | 146.3 | 7.28 | |
Deutsche Bank | 7000 | 4.7% (Q4'25) | 1.03 (Q4'25) | ||
Nomura | 135 | 6.93 | |||
Morgan Stanley | 6500 | 3.55% (Q4'25) | 1.10 (Q4'25) | 138 (Q4'25) | 7.60 (Q4'25) |
J.P.Morgan | 6500 | 4.10% (Q3'25) | 1.08 | 148 | 7.50 |
BofA Global Research | 6666 | 4.25% | 1.10 | 160 | 7.40 |
Wells Fargo | 4.00% | ||||
BMO Capital Markets | 6700 | ||||
Jefferies | 6000 | ||||
Barclays | 6600 | ||||
Piper Sandler | 6600 | ||||
Berenberg | 4.90% | 1.08 | 140 | 7.20 | |
BNP Paribas | 3.65% (Q4'25) | 1.15 (Q4'25) | 131 (Q4'25) |
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) | ||
Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
Goldman Sachs | 2.5% | 2.4% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 2.3% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.3% | 2.5% (Q4/Q4) |
Barclays | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Wells Fargo | 2.6% | 2.5% |
Societe Generale | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Deutsche Bank | 2.6% | 2.6% (Q4/Q4) |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.3% | |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.6% | |
Citigroup | 2.1 (Q4'25) | 2.3 (Q4'25) |
BofA Global Research | 2.4% | |
Berenberg | 2.7% | 2.6% |
BNP Paribas | 2.3% | |
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% (for FY 26) |
Goldman Sachs | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 6.3% |
Barclays | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 7.2% |
Morgan Stanley | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 6.5% (FY25/FY26) |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% |
Wells Fargo | 2.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 5.9% |
Societe Generale | 3.3% | 2.2% | 4.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | |
Citigroup | 1.1% | 1.0% | ||||
Nomura | 4.0% | 6.9% | ||||
BofA Global Research | 3.3% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 1.1% | ||
Deutsche Bank | 3.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 6.5% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.5% | |||||
Berenberg | 2.7% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 6.5% |
BNP Paribas | 2.1% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 6.7% (March 2026) | |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank
Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva
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