Brokerages see 'uncertain' 2025 on worries over potential Trump tariffs
Updates with S&P 500, U.S. 10-year treasury yield, U.S. GDP forecasts from Wells Fargo Investment Institute
Nov 20 (Reuters) -Uncertainties around U.S. policies may slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs to fuel volatility across global markets, spurring inflationary pressures and, in turn, limiting the scope for major central banks to ease monetary policy.
World economies and equity markets have had a robust year, with global growth expected to average 3.1% this year, a Reuters poll published in October showed.
Following are forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
Brokerage | S&P 500 target | U.S. 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY |
UBS Global Research | 6400 | 3.80 | 1.04 | 157.0 | 7.60 |
Goldman Sachs | 6500 (next 12-months) | 4.25%(next 12-months) | 1.03(next 12-months) | 159(next 12-months) | 7.50(next 12-months) |
Nomura | 135 | 6.93 | |||
Barclays | |||||
Morgan Stanley | 6500 | ||||
J.P.Morgan | 4.10 (Q3'25) | ||||
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 6500-6700 | 4.50%-5.00% |
U.S. Inflation:
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025) | ||
Brokerage | Headline CPI | Core PCE |
Goldman Sachs | 2.5% | 2.4% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 2.3% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.3% | 2.5% (4Q/4Q) |
Barclays | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Real GDP Growth:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025 | ||||||
Brokerage | GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA |
UBS Global Research | 2.9% | 1.9% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 6.3% (for FY 26) |
Goldman Sachs | 2.7% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 6.3% |
Barclays | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 7.2% |
Morgan Stanley | 3.0% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 6.5% (FY25/FY26) |
J.P.Morgan | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 6.0% |
Citigroup | 1.1% | 1.0% | ||||
Nomura | 4.0% | 6.9% | ||||
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 2.5% | |||||
Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva
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