Barclays Lowers Its 2025 Brent Fair Value Estimate To $83 Per Barrel
Dec 16 (Reuters) -BARCLAYS:
LOWERS ITS 2025 FAIR VALUE ESTIMATE FOR BRENT TO $83/B
SAYS A 0.5 MB/D DEVIATION IN DEMAND RELATIVE TO THEIR ESTIMATES WOULD IMPLY $10/B SWING IN THEIR $80/B FAIR VALUE ESTIMATE FOR BRENT IN Q4 25
SAYS ITS 2024 GLOBAL OIL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST IS DOWN 140 KB/D TO 0.9 MB/D
SAYS FOR 2025, ITS AGGREGATE OIL DEMAND ESTIMATE IS LITTLE CHANGED AT 104.3 MB/D, BUT ITS GROWTH FORECAST IS 210 KB/D HIGHER
SAYS ITS NON-OPEC SUPPLY GROWTH FORECAST IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGED IN AGGREGATE, BUT REVISE DOWN ITS U.S. CRUDE OUTPUT GROWTH FORECAST TO 250 KB/D Q4-TO-Q4, FROM 350 KB/D EARLIER
SAYS ITS ESTIMATE FOR GROWTH IN OPEC CRUDE DECLINES 540 KB/D, DUE LARGELY TO THE GROUP'S RECENT DECISION
SAYS WITH A NEW U.S. ADMINISTRATION TAKING CHARGE IN 2025, THERE IS HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY AROUND THEIR BASELINE ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR MATERIAL CHANGES TO CHINA- OR IRAN-RELATED POLICIES TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT KEY FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERS ON THE DEMAND AND SUPPLY SIDE
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