Australia dollar hits 7-week high on euro, 4-month top on kiwi
Single currency dives as Ukraine war escalates
AUD hits four-month high on the kiwi
RBNZ expected to deliver another 50 bps rate cut on Wednesday
SYDNEY, Nov 22 (Reuters) -The Australian dollar hit a seven-week high on the euro on Friday as the single currency dived amid an escalating war between Russia and Ukraine, while diverging rate outlooks sent the Aussie to a near four-month top on the kiwi.
The Aussie rose 0.10% to 0.6223 per euro AUDEUR=R, the highest since early October, having climbed 0.80% overnight. The euro was the biggest mover overnight, tumbling to a fresh one-year low on the dollar EUR=EBS and hitting a one-month trough on the low-yielding yen EURJPY=R. FRX/
"AUD/EUR jumped because of a deterioration in the Russia‑Ukraine war," said Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "European gas prices surged by more than 4%. Australia is a major gas exporter while Europe is a major gas importer."
Against the U.S. dollar, the Aussie AUD=D3 was flat at $0.6513 and was set for a weekly gain of 0.80%, well off a three-month low of $0.6441.
The kiwi NZD=D3, however, was undermined by the prospects of aggressive policy easing at home. It was last at $0.5845 and was headed for a weekly loss of 0.40%.
The Aussie also jumped to NZ$1.1147 AUDNZD=R, the highest since late July and breaking a key level at NZ$1.1090. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to deliver another 50 basis point rate cut on Wednesday and the risk lies with an even larger 75 bp easing, which is priced at 25%. 0#NZDIRPR
In contrast, Australian markets have not fully priced in a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia until next July. 0#AUDIRPR
Westpac is the latest major Australian bank to push out its rate cut call to May from February, after the latest minutes suggested the RBA will need to see more than one good quarterly inflation report before cutting.
"An earlier start in February or March is still possible, but it is no longer more likely than a May start date. A later start date is also a risk scenario, if inflation does not decline as the RBA is currently forecasting," Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis said.
National Australia Bank has already tipped for a rate cut in May, while ANZ and the CBA are still holding out for a move in February.
Local bonds finally enjoyed some relief this week after recent relentless selling. Australian three-year government bond yields AU3YT=RR were 7 basis points lower for the week at 4.1020% after rising for nine weeks.
Ten-year yields AU10YT=RR were down 8 bps this week at 4.5650%, having also risen for nine weeks.
Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Nicholas Yong
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