AI with reasoning power will be less predictable, Ilya Sutskever says
By Jeffrey Dastin
VANCOUVER, Dec 13 (Reuters) -Former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever, one of the biggest names in artificial intelligence, had a prediction to make on Friday: reasoning capabilities will make technology far less predictable.
Accepting a "Test Of Time" award for his 2014 paper with Google's GOOGL.O Oriol Vinyals and Quoc Le, Sutskever said a major change was on AI's horizon.
An idea that his team had explored a decade ago, that scaling up data to "pre-train" AI systems would send them to new heights, was starting to reach its limits, he said. More data and computing power had resulted in ChatGPT that OpenAI launched in 2022, to the world's acclaim.
"But pre-training as we know it will unquestionably end," Sutskever declared before thousands of attendees at the NeurIPS conference in Vancouver. "While compute is growing," he said, "the data is not growing, because we have but one internet."
Sutskever offered some ways to push the frontier despite this conundrum. He said technology itself could generate new data, or AI models could evaluate multiple answers before settling on the best response for a user, to improve accuracy. Other scientists have set sights on real-world data.
But his talk culminated in a prediction for a future of superintelligent machines that he said "obviously" await, a point with which some disagree. Sutskever this year co-founded Safe Superintelligence Inc in the aftermath of his role in Sam Altman's short-lived ouster from OpenAI, which he said within days he regretted.
Long-in-the-works AI agents, he said, will come to fruition in that future age, have deeper understanding and be self-aware. He said AI will reason through problems like humans can.
There's a catch.
"The more it reasons, the more unpredictable it becomes," he said.
Reasoning through millions of options could make any outcome non-obvious. By way of example, AlphaGo, a system built by Alphabet's DeepMind, surprised experts of the highly complex board game with its inscrutable 37th move, on a path to defeating Lee Sedol in a match in 2016.
Sutskever said similarly, "the chess AIs, the really good ones, are unpredictable to the best human chess players."
AI as we know it, he said, will be "radically different."
Reporting By Jeffrey Dastin and Anna Tong in Vancouver; Editing by Sam Holmes
Related Assets
Latest News
Disclaimer: The XM Group entities provide execution-only service and access to our Online Trading Facility, permitting a person to view and/or use the content available on or via the website, is not intended to change or expand on this, nor does it change or expand on this. Such access and use are always subject to: (i) Terms and Conditions; (ii) Risk Warnings; and (iii) Full Disclaimer. Such content is therefore provided as no more than general information. Particularly, please be aware that the contents of our Online Trading Facility are neither a solicitation, nor an offer to enter any transactions on the financial markets. Trading on any financial market involves a significant level of risk to your capital.
All material published on our Online Trading Facility is intended for educational/informational purposes only, and does not contain – nor should it be considered as containing – financial, investment tax or trading advice and recommendations; or a record of our trading prices; or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instruments; or unsolicited financial promotions to you.
Any third-party content, as well as content prepared by XM, such as: opinions, news, research, analyses, prices and other information or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an “as-is” basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, it would be considered as marketing communication under the relevant laws and regulations. Please ensure that you have read and understood our Notification on Non-Independent Investment. Research and Risk Warning concerning the foregoing information, which can be accessed here.