A sign of better days for sterling
Sterling burst through 10-day moving average resistance at 1.2622 on its way to a 1-week high at 1.2668 after unexpectedly soft durable goods data boosted betting on a Fed rate cut in December, which could help lift cable to the Nov. 20 high at 1.2713.
Sterling received help by an apparent reversal of some recent dollar-positive Trump tariff trades as the long U.S. Thanksgiving Day holiday and month-end encourage traders to prune positions given reduced liquidity and heightened geopolitical uncertainty.
Moving toward year-end, the seasonal liquidity drain is likely to weigh on the dollar further as traders trim net USD G10 longs, which rose from -$17.3bn on Sept. 2 to +$23.7bn as of Nov. 18.
Sterling net positioning over the same period dipped from +100k contracts to +40k, as entrenched sterling longs exited during a shift in the Fed policy narrative to a less-dovish stance following the November policy meeting.
Heading toward year-end and into 2025, parallel policy paths for the BoE and Fed may allow sterling bulls to reload longs and make a run toward 1.2955, the 50% Fib of 1.3434-1.2475 the September-November range.
For more click on FXBUZ
GBP Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/3Zodtql
USD Net G10 Position Chart: https://tmsnrt.rs/4i71Xqy
(Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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