Technical Analysis – Gold consolidates below uptrend line
- Gold continues to struggle post the US election
- 50-day SMA stands ready to defend the bulls
- Momentum indicators are mixed
Gold is edging lower for a second day after its upside attempt faced resistance at the short-term ascending trendline. The precious metal hit a three-week low of 2,643.26 last week in the aftermath of Donald Trump winning the US presidential election.
The near-term outlook is unclear, however, as the stochastic oscillator is recovering from oversold levels, but the RSI is pointing downwards below 50.
If the price continues to drift lower, there’s likely to be some support at the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) in the 2,645-2650 region. Further losses would bring into scope the October low of 2601.61, which coincides with the current location of the longer-term ascending trendline. Dropping beneath this uptrend line would shift the medium-term picture to a more bearish one.
However, if the price is able to bounce off the 50-day SMA, it’s likely to again face a major battle at the short-term ascending trendline, which is being bolstered by the 20-day SMA closing in on it. Nevertheless, a convincing break above the 2,710 zone would bring the all-time high of 2789.95 from October 30 back into the spotlight, after which, the bulls would be able to focus on tackling the 2,800 mark. Yet, a further challenge looms at 2,821.05, which is the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the September-October downleg.
To sum up, gold will likely struggle for direction for a while longer. But as long as it stays above the 50-day SMA, the chances of it resuming the uptrend are strong, whereas a slip below it would weaken the bullish structure.
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