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Previews

Analysis - 3 days ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold

Gold shows recovery signs after aggressive selloffEURUSD pauses bear run near 1.0500. Will eurozone PMIs trigger a rebound?GBPUSD hopes for a bullish rotation amid busy data calendar US data, geopolitics --> Gold Gold attracted fresh safe-haven demand on Monday amid renewed geopolitical tensions during the weekend as Russia attacked Ukrainian power plants and the US approved Ukraine’s use of long-range US missiles to strike within Russia.While Trump has promised to end the war, uncer
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Analysis - 6 days ago

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, UK and Canadian CPI data enter the spotlight

Almighty dollar awaits PMIs for more signs of Fed cut delaysEurozone PMIs also on tap amid speculation of bigger cut by ECBPound could benefit from data pointing to rebound in inflationCanadian and Japanese CPI numbers also on the agendaTrump’s election raises bets for a Fed pauseThe US dollar continued flexing its muscles for another week, with the so-called ‘Trump trades’ showing no signs of cooling as the president-elect Republican party will control both chambers of the US Congress, wh
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Analysis - 1 week ago

What October’s CPI could mean for the Fed and the US dollar? – Preview

US headline CPI inflation expected to bounce up to 2.6%Inflation stickiness could put December’s rate cut under examination   Fed to stick to its plan, at least for nowAs the Powell-Trump relationship remains at odds, one thing remains clear: the Federal Reserve's focus on price stability and maximum employment will likely stay on course, regardless of the political shift.
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – US 500, GBPUSD, USDJPY

USDJPY in upside mode, eyes first US CPI after Trump's electionUK GDP data to slow down as GBPUSD eases Japan GDP may be the key data to drive USDJPY lowerUS CPI --> US 500The US CPI data for October, which is coming out on Wednesday, is the initial post-election test for rate reduction bets after Trump’s victory in the US elections in the previous week.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – US CPI to shift market focus back to data after Trump shock

After Trump comeback, normality to return to markets with US CPIGDP data from UK and Japan to also be importantBut volatility to likely persist as markets assess impact of Trump 2.0US CPI eyed as rate cut bets fade after Trump winDonald Trump’s historic return to the White House was met with a euphoric response by the markets. Wall Street and Bitcoin rallied to record highs, while the US dollar skyrocketed to 4-month highs.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

A BoE rate cut is expected but the overall rhetoric matters – Preview

The BoE meeting concludes on ThursdayMarket expects a 25bps rate cutRhetoric and voting pattern matterPound could suffer from a dovish rate cut BoE meets on ThursdayThe Bank of England will hold its penultimate meeting for 2024 on Thursday, a few hours ahead of the Fed's gathering. With the market anxiously awaiting the outcome of the US presidential election, Governor Bailey et al will examine the progress made since the September meeting.Mixed signals from the economySince the September m
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Fed set to cut rates under the shadow of US elections – Preview

Fed expected to cut rates for second time, overlook political risksBut will it be the last cut for 2024?Dovish tone and election results pose a risk for dollar bullsFOMC Decision is due at 19:00 GMT Thursday, Powell conference at 19:30 GMTAfter much back-and-forth, a 25-bps cut is a done dealThe Federal Reserve is almost certain to deliver its second rate cut of this easing cycle on Thursday, with the size of the reduction no longer in question following a string of upbeat economic indicators ou
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

RBA in wait-and-see mode despite drop in inflation – Preview

RBA to stand pat at 4.35%Aussie may not be affected from this meetingDecision due on Tuesday at 3:30 GMTRBA policy to remain unchangedThe upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy meeting on November 5 is highly anticipated, with the bank adopting a wait-and-see approach and holding the cash rate steady while monitoring economic developments.
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Week Ahead – US election draws all eyes, Fed, RBA and BoE meet

Traders lock gaze on Tuesday’s US electionTrump and Harris battle neck and neck in final stretchFed to decide whether to cut interest ratesRBA and BoE decisions are also on next week’s agendaThe US dollar flexed its muscles lately on the back of upbeat data suggesting that there is no need for the Fed to deliver another bold 50bps rate cut at the remaining gatherings of the year, but also due to increasing market bets that Donald Trump will return to the White House.It’s US election time!T
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Dollar could get a boost from Friday’s US jobs data – Preview

Markets are preparing for next week’s US electionKey US data on Friday, a week before the Fed meetingAnother strong set of data could endanger the Fed rate cutThe dollar could get a meaningful boost against the yenUS election in the spotlightThe US presidential election continues to monopolize the market’s interest. While the outcome is uncertain, most investors have a pretty good idea of the economic agendas of both candidates.
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

BoJ to stand pat; Yen under pressure – Preview

BoJ expected to leave rates at 0.25%Lowest inflation since April at 2.5%Yen dives to new 3-month lowDecision comes out on Thursday at 03:00 GMTBoJ to leave rates unchangedThe Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to maintain its existing interest rates during the policy meeting on October 31. This decision reflects Governor Kazuo Ueda’s prudent strategy, highlighting the necessity to evaluate risks, especially those associated with the US economy and fluctuating markets.
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP

NFP report may shake the markets as EURUSD battles with 1.0800BoJ interest rate may remain steady; USDJPY rises to 3-month highEurozone flash CPI may fail to help EURGBP to recoverUS NFP report --> EURUSDThis week’s US data will provide an update on the US economy and inflation ahead of the Fed's November policy decision.The October nonfarm payrolls report will be the highlight of the week.
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Analysis - 4 weeks ago

Week Ahead – A decisive week for USD with NFP and more; BoJ meets

A crucial week lies ahead with US jobs report, advance GDP and PCE inflationThe Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates, but will it flag a year-end hike?Flash GDP and CPI data for the euro area are also hotly anticipatedAustralian quarterly CPI and UK budget on the agenda tooAll eyes on US data as Fed turns hawkish againThe Federal Reserve’s surprise decision in September to cut rates by a larger-than-expected 50-basis-points seems like a distant memory now, as policymakers are once again sen
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Analysis - 4 weeks agoNeutral

BoC policy meeting: a rate cut and clues for the next one – Preview

BoC is expected to cut rates by 50 bps, the fourth one in a rowPolicymakers may give some hints about the December meetingLoonie looks strongly bearishDecision comes out on Wednesday at 13:45 GMTFall in inflation confirms the rate cutIt is widely expected that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will announce a substantial interest rate cut on Wednesday, particularly in light of the inflation data that was released the previous week.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Week Ahead – BoC to speed up rate cuts; flash PMIs eyed for growth clues

Bank of Canada meets; may opt for bigger 50-bps cutOctober flash PMIs to set the mood amid some growth concernsA relatively quiet week otherwise, with mostly second-tier releasesBoC to likely cut by half a pointExpectations that the Bank of Canada will cut rates by 50 basis points at its October meeting firmed up after the latest CPI data. Nevertheless, markets are not fully convinced of an outsized move, hence, there is a little bit of uncertainty heading into Wednesday’s decision by Canada��
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY

ECB expected to cut rates by 25 bps; EURUSD remains beneath 1.1000UK CPI could provide some clues for the next BoE decision; GBPUSD in weak modeUS retail sales may lower chances for another Fed rate cut; USDJPY flirts with 149.35ECB decision -->  EURUSDThe upcoming ECB interest rate decision on Thursday is this week's most anticipated event. Initially opposed by President Lagarde and her colleagues, the possibility of a rate decrease in October has gained traction among investors.�
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

ECB to cut rates despite plethora of reasons for a pause – Preview

ECB meets on Thursday; markets expect a 25bps rate cutLots of reasons for a pause, including the lack of staff projectionsBut the ECB might choose to avoid disappointing the marketsThe euro could really benefit from a rate pause ECB meets on ThursdayThe ECB will hold its penultimate meeting for 2024 on Thursday, just five weeks after the September gathering that produced another rate cut.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Week Ahead – ECB headed towards another cut, CPI on the agenda elsewhere

The ECB is expected to deliver its first back-to-back rate cut on ThursdayCPI data incoming in Canada, China, Japan, New Zealand and UKChina GDP and US retail sales also high on investors’ radarIs an ECB rate cut a done deal?Following the RBNZ, which cut interest rates by 50 basis points this Wednesday, the central bank torch will be passed next week to the ECB.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

As investors scale back Fed cut bets, US CPI data enters the spotlight – Preview

US NFP data eliminate chances of another 50bps rate cutSpotlight turns to US CPI numbers for SeptemberPMI data corroborate the notion for sticky underlying inflationThe data comes out on Thursday, at 12:30 GMTBets of 50bps cut in November disappearThe dollar’s engines received more fuel on Friday, with the catalyst this time around being the robust US employment data for September.
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

RBNZ policy meeting: 25 or 50 bps rate cut? – Preview

RBNZ decision could shake kiwi/dollarAs inflation ticks lower, another rate cut is expectedPolicy meeting takes place on Wednesday at 01:00 GMTRBNZ decision to cut ratesThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand is poised to make another rate cut on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to follow the Federal Reserve with a half-point cut, as the pressure to reduce real rates at a faster tempo is being exacerbated by a sluggish activity picture and lower inflation.
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