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Previews

XM Research - 1 day ago

Asian markets bounce back; eyes on local data, not just US CPI – Preview

Asian equities extend rebound ahead of key data Japanese GDP, Aussie jobs and Chinese indicators on the agenda Any upsets could roil the fragile sentiment A cautious rebound for stocks Stock markets in Asia have not been immune to the global selloff in August amid the unwinding of the yen carry trade and renewed fears about a US recession.
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XM Research - 2 days ago

The calmer markets could refocus on economic releases Rich UK data calendar could question BoE’s recent rate cut Wednesday’s headline inflation to see a small acceleration Pound is trying to recover from the BoE-induced underperformance Markets to refocus on data Following a rather eventful period, market participants are feeling slightly calmer at the beginning of this week and hence have the chance to refocus on the real economy.
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XM Research - 2 days ago

US CPI and retail sales data to test Fed rate cut bets - Preview

Investors panicked after NFP report But incoming data eased fears and rate cut bets Still, market pricing remains overly dovish Focus turns to US CPI on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday, at 12:30 GMT Latest data ease recession fears Following the weaker-than-expected US employment report for July, market participants entered panic mode as recession fears resurfaced.
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XM Research - 2 days ago

Will the RBNZ start cutting rates sooner than later – Preview

RBNZ could keep interest rates steady but signal easing sooner rather than later Economic picture shows signs of stress but no red flags yet NZDUSD approaches 0.6060-0.6080 resistance territory   NZ employment data sway rate cut bets Q2 employment data from New Zealand exceeded the forecasts, leading to a reevaluation of rate cut expectations and a subsequent bullish movement in NZDUSD.
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Week Ahead – US CPI to test market nerves, RBNZ might cut rates

Market turmoil has eased, but will US CPI stir things up again? Crucial week for sterling as UK CPI, GDP and retail sales on the way The RBNZ is edging closer to a rate cut, but will it be next week? Japanese GDP, Australian jobs and Chinese data eyed too US economy worries take front and centre The panic about the US economy being on the verge of a recession has mostly eased but markets remain jittery.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Will the BoJ Summary of Opinions add more fuel to the yen’s engines? – Preview

Yen rallies on cocktail of developments BoJ Summary could offer more policy clarity The report will be published on Wednesday at 23:50 GMT Yen skyrockets more than 12% after intervention After hitting a 38-year low against its US counterpart on July 3, the Japanese yen entered a consolidative phase and then, on July 11, helped by an intervention episode, it staged an unprecedented recovery, with dollar/yen tumbling as much as 12.5%.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Could data open the door to an RBNZ cut next week? – Preview

Market in crisis mode after Friday’s US labour report An RNBZ rate cut could be on the cards if data weakens China’s problems hamper progress in the region Kiwi in desperate need of good data prints Markets in disarray With the market digesting last week’s events, especially Friday’s US labour market report that triggered discussions of a US recession, and the heightened probability for aggressive rate cuts by the Fed during 2024, the focus turns to the Asia-Pacific r
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Week Ahead – RBA and BoJ Summary of Opinions take center stage

RBA decides on policy as hike bets disappear BoJ Summary of Opinions awaited for more hike hints After Fed, dollar turns to ISM non-mfg PMI New Zealand and Canada jobs data also on tap   Will the RBA turn dovish? Following the BoJ, the Fed, and the BoE decisions this week, the central bank torch will next be passed to the RBA, which announces its decision on Tuesday.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

RBA meets as rate hike odds fade, aussie sinks after CPI data – Preview

RBA set to keep rates on hold despite elevated inflation But latest CPI report raises hope that price pressures are easing A dovish pivot on Tuesday (07:30 GMT) could further devastate the aussie Lack of progress The Reserve Bank of Australia has barely made any progress on getting inflation down in 2024, with the monthly CPI gauge standing higher in June than where it was in December.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Will US nonfarm payrolls steal the show this week? – Preview

US nonfarm payrolls to be released on Friday, 12:30 GMT Analysts estimate softer employment conditions in July    Gold might push for an uptrend resumption if jobs data disappoint   Will July's NFP report be a game-changer? Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will not be the last before September’s FOMC policy meeting, but it will be the first release of the third quarter and the first of the second half of the year.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Is the BoE really close to announcing a rate cut? – Preview

BoE meets on Thursday with a rate cut firmly on the cards Data has been positive but doves in control of the committee Pound could suffer on Thursday but still favoured against the euro Rate announcement at 11.00 GMT with the press conference held 30 minutes later The Fed gathering matters for the BoE The Bank of England meets on August 1, the day after the Fed meeting that it is not currently expected to produce a surprise rate cut or a dovish shift.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Will BoJ raise rates at this policy meeting? – Preview

BoJ may shake the market with a rate hike The bank plans to unveil a strategy to roughly halve bond Yen recoups some losses with notable bullish correction Decision is due on Wednesday at 03:00 GMT Will BoJ hike rates on Wednesday? At its next meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), one of the most important central banks in the world, will make an extremely significant decision about interest rates.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Key euro area data overshadowed by developments elsewhere – Preview

Fed meeting and Middle East developments in the foreground Tuesday's eurozone GDP figures could produce a surprise Wednesday’s inflation report unlikely to unsettle ECB expectations Euro remains under pressure against the pound Fed meeting overshadows key Euro area data With the market digesting the latest developments in the US presidential race and preparing for Wednesday’s Fed meeting, a rather busy calendar is in store for euro traders this week.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Will the Fed signal a September rate cut? – Preview

Fed sees inflation on a path to remain low Investors expect three 25bps rate cuts by January Fed to keep rates untouched, focus on guidance The decision is published on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT   Data bolster Fed’s confidence At its latest gathering in June, the FOMC appeared more hawkish than expected, revising its interest rate projections from three quarter-point reductions by the end of the year to just one.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Week Ahead – BoJ, Fed and BoE meetings: a hike, a hold and a cut?

A trio of central bank decisions coming up from the BoJ, Fed and BoE One might hike, one might stand pat and the other cut rates ECB to also be in focus as Eurozone flash GDP and CPI data are due Week will culminate with crucial US jobs report BoJ expected to taper; will it hike too? The Bank of Japan has barely left the headlines lately.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

US GDP and PCE inflation up next before July FOMC – Preview

Fed to get final clues on growth and inflation before July meeting But with traders more preoccupied with politics, will the data move the dollar? Preliminary GDP is due Thursday and PCE inflation on Friday, both at 12:30 GMT Fed still wants to see more progress The recent inflation reports have brought some much needed relief for both policymakers and the markets, pointing to a resumption of the downward trend after several months of sideways movement.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

BoC to cut rates again, what's next? – Preview

Bank of Canada to slash rates by 25bps for the second time in a row More easing expected, but policymakers might signal a data-dependent approach USDCAD tests key resistance of 1.3740; key support at 1.3620   Investors are confident that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the second time in a row to 4.5% when it announces its policy decision on Wednesday.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

PMIs could momentarily take focus away from US developments – Preview

Wednesday's PMI surveys key for both the Fed and the BoE Eurozone PMI manufacturing survey could disappoint again US PMIs unlikely to unsettle September Fed expectations UK figures could surprise on the upside after the general election Important PMI survey prints this week as both the Fed and the BoE meet soon Despite last week’s stock market correction and the latest developments in the US Presidential race dominating the headlines, economic data releases this week sho
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

Week Ahead – Flash PMIs, US GDP and BoC decision on tap

US data awaited amid overly dovish Fed rate cut bets July PMIs to reveal how economies entered H2 BoC decides on monetary policy, may cut rates again Will investors add to their Fed rate cut bets? With investors ramping up their Fed rate cut bets, the US dollar suffered during the first half of the week, although it recovered some ground on Thursday.
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XM Research - 4 weeks ago

ECB could disappoint expectations for a dovish shift – Preview

ECB meets with near zero chances for a rate cut ECB members continue to disagree about the rates outlook A dovish shift looks unlikely as the focus rests with the Fed Euro showing unexpected strength despite political unrest ECB meets but all eyes remain on the US The ECB is preparing for the last meeting before the summer lull with developments elsewhere making President Lagarde’s job even more challenging.
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