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Volatility returns to normal levels after US election calmness – Volatility Watch



  • Euro/dollar volatility edged higher
  • Volatility remains low in the commodities space
  • Stock indices experience average volatility despite selloff

Euro/dollar volatility has edged higher, as the dollar continued to gain from Trump’s recent win, pushing the euro/dollar pair to a one-year low. Interestingly, last week's change in Fed Chair Powell’s stance regarding the timing of the next rate cuts did not materially benefit the dollar. This increased volatility is being observed across the FX space, including in yen pairs. The market’s angst about the minority government in Japan and the resurgence of intervention rumours have contributed to a small pickup in volatility.

Volatility in the commodities space remains relatively low. Gold is nursing its recent price losses, despite a small boost from the latest developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, while silver is feeling a bit perkier. Similarly, oil prices have edged higher on a weekly basis, but volatility did not materially advance as market participants are waiting for the announcement of the new US administration’s stance regarding oil production.

On the back of Fed Powell’s hawkish rhetoric, stock indices have given back a small chunk of their post-US election price gains, pushing volatility a tad higher. Interestingly, the cryptocurrency market remains on fire with bitcoin hovering around the $90k level and volatility recording a new monthly high.

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