Volatility ebbs as recession fears evaporate – Volatility Watch
Besides EUR/USD, FX volatility subsides as markets digest rate path repricing
Volatility in precious metals is still high, but oil enters calmer waters
Stock indices and Bitcoin volatility at their bottom of their 30-day range
Recession concerns from a weaker-than-expected July NFP report have been fading, though they led to notable adjustments in expectations about major central banks' interest rate paths. This week, investors are focused on Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech, anticipating insights on the Fed's view on the current economic conditions and prospective rate cuts.
In the Forex spectrum, volatility has frayed across the board but still remains in neutral territories. The only exception is EUR/USD, which posted a fresh 2024 high on Tuesday, mainly driven by increasing bearish bets on the greenback rather than the euro’s strength.
In commodities, volatility in gold has skyrocketed as the precious metal has been posting consecutive all-time highs in the past couple of sessions, while silver is also following suit. Interestingly, oil seems calmer on the prospect of intensifying ceasefire talks in Gaza.
Finally, stock indices and Bitcoin have seen a massive reduction in volatility as they slowly rebound from their excessive post-NFP plunge.
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