Technical Analysis – GBPUSD pauses decline near pivot area
- GBPUSD hopes for a bullish turn after six-month low
- Technical signals suggest recent decline is overdone
- Bulls face a wall within 1.2663-1.2685 area
GBPUSD found some relief after its six-day losing streak hit the important support trendline from October 2023 near 1.2600 – the lowest level in six months.
The RSI and the stochastic oscillator are hovering near their oversold levels, suggesting a rebound or a consolidation phase might be on the horizon.
However, further bullish momentum may be limited unless the price pushes decisively above the August bar of 1.2663-1.2685. If the pair manages to break through this zone, the next key resistance level could be found around 1.2730, where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-to-September rally is placed. Beyond that, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.2865 will be tested ahead of the tentative resistance line at 1.2915. Then, the bulls may need to breach the 1.3000-1.3040 region to officially declare a positive trend reversal.
On the downside, if the pair falls below the floor of 1.2540-1.2580, a sharp decline could take place toward 1.2400-1.2440. If the downside pressure strengthens from there, the 1.2300 level, which nearly triggered a rally in April, may once again provide protection.
In summary, while GBPUSD appears to be setting up for a potential recovery, a decisive move above 1.2663-1.2685 is needed to confirm a continuation of the upward move.
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