Technical Analysis – Could the AUDUSD selloff pause temporarily?
- AUDUSD is trading sideways, a tad above 0.6547
- The downtrend from the September 30 high remains in place
- Momentum indicators are mostly bearish
AUDUSD is trading sideways today, a tad above 0.6547. The bearish trend from the September 30 peak remains firmly in place, and, quite interestingly, AUDUSD bulls have failed, up to now, to stage an upleg and temporarily interrupt the ongoing selloff. The market’s focus is on the US presidential election although this week’s US data could also materially impact the dollar’s performance.
The momentum indicators are bearish at this juncture. In more detail, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is edging higher and thus signalling a strong bearish trend in AUDUSD, while the RSI is comfortably trading below its 50-midpoint. Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator is hovering inside its oversold territory (OS), but it has failed, up to now, to climb above its moving average (MA). A move above both its MA and OS could be the signal the bulls have been waiting for in order to finally stage a small rally.
Should the bears remain hungry, they could try to break below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the October 13, 2022 – February 2, 2023 uptrend at 0.6547. The door could then open for a move towards the May 31, 2023 low at 0.6458, with the next plausible target being the September 6, 2023 low at 0.6356.
On the other hand, the bulls are desperate for a small upleg. They could firstly try to keep AUDUSD above the 0.6547 level and then gradually push it higher towards the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6676. If successful, they could then test the resistance set by the busier 0.6663-0.6707 area, which is populated by the July 14, 2022 low and the 100-day SMA.
To sum up, AUDUSD bears remain in control and potentially in a strong position for next big US events starting with Friday’s job report.
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