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FX volatility surges ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch



  • Euro/dollar volatility jumps to a monthly high
  • Volatility eases aggressively in the commodities space
  • Stock indices experience very low volatility

Euro/dollar volatility has increased over the past week, reaching a new 30-day high, as the euro remains under severe pressure due to weak economic data prints, political developments in both France and Germany, and concerns about Trump’s tariff strategy. Very high volatility is also observed in yen pairs, where the recent verbal interventions by Japanese officials and a good set of incoming data have firmly opened the door to a December rate hike by the BoJ.

Volatility in the commodities space has eased aggressively over the past week, reaching a monthly low in both silver and oil. Particularly in the case of oil, this volatility dive is quite interesting considering the sizeable weekly price loss of around 4.4%. Gold has also experienced a decent volatility drop, as the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire has mostly negated the fears for a significant escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Stock indices recorded further weekly price gains, with volatility remaining at a nirvana level and reaching new monthly lows, apart from the German stock market. The political shenanigans in the two biggest eurozone economies are keeping investors on their toes. 

Finally, for the first time since late October, bitcoin volatility has eased somewhat. The king of cryptos is hovering around the $95k level, with investors potentially preparing for the next upleg that could push it above the $100k threshold.

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