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Special Reports

Analysis - 17 hours ago

Volatility picks up in specific asset classes – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility jumps aggressively higherVolatility remains very low in commodities, apart from goldStock indices experience below average volatility.Euro/dollar volatility has increased significantly over the past week, as the dollar continues to benefit from Trump’s win and the Fed’s mixed messages regarding the December 18 meeting. Euro crosses are experiencing elevated volatility, partly due to the weak euro area data keeping the door open to a sizeable ECB rate cut in December.
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Analysis - 19 hours ago

Will the Santa Claus rally reappear this year?

Equities and volatility tend to increase after the Thanksgiving holidayFX and commodities do not follow a specific pattern in the examined periodPost-Thanksgiving performance of equities in election years is very positiveEuro/dollar and WTI oil rally when Thanksgiving falls on November 28Thanksgiving holiday approachesThe month of November has been quite eventful, with the US presidential election monopolizing the market’s interest and causing significant asset movements.
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Analysis - 1 week ago

Volatility returns to normal levels after US election calmness – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility edged higherVolatility remains low in the commodities spaceStock indices experience average volatility despite selloffEuro/dollar volatility has edged higher, as the dollar continued to gain from Trump’s recent win, pushing the euro/dollar pair to a one-year low. Interestingly, last week's change in Fed Chair Powell’s stance regarding the timing of the next rate cuts did not materially benefit the dollar.
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Is Trump’s election the end of gold’s bull run?

Trump’s election invites gold bears into the gameBets of slower rate cuts by the Fed may be the main driverPBoC pauses purchases, but strategy likely not changedSpeculation around geopolitics may also be weighingTrump wins but gold losesAfter hitting a record high of around $2,790 on October 30, gold entered a corrective phase due to US data suggesting that the Fed may need to slow down the pace of its future interest rate reductions.The correction of the precious metal accelerated on the firs
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Analysis - 2 weeks ago

Markets return to a low-volatility environment after the US election – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility has eased aggressivelyVolatility has dropped to monthly low in both gold and silverStock indices experience a significant decline in volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has eased significantly, as market participants have reacted favourably to both the outcome of the US presidential election and the absence of the post-election shenanigans seen in 2020. The dollar has strengthened over the past week with the euro suffering the most.
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Could markets relive the 2016 post-election day performance?

Euro/dollar could suffer if 2016 repeats itselfUS stocks could further benefit from Trump’s winGold and bitcoin might move in opposite directionEuro/dollar volatility could rise furtherTrump wins a second termFormer President Trump has won the 2024 presidential election, achieving a noticeable comeback following the 2020 defeat. The market reaction has been mostly within expectations, with the dollar gaining across the board, gold suffering and bitcoin enjoying strong gains.While market partic
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Volatility remains high as US voters elect a new president – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices experience a jump in volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to a new 30-day high, as market participants are preparing for the US presidential election and Thursday’s Fed meeting. This heightened volatility is being observed across the FX space, including in the yen pairs.
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Analysis - 3 weeks ago

Preparing for a US election marathon

The world is preparing for the November 5 US presidential electionVoting times vary across states but the focus will be on seven key statesCandidates need to win most of these swing states to secure victory“Safe” states will be called quickly but the final result might be delayed for daysThe countdown to the US presidential election is almost finished, with the polls opening on Tuesday.
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Analysis - 4 weeks ago

Volatility jumps as markets prepare for action-packed period – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility climbs to a new monthly highVolatility remains very elevated in both gold and silverStock indices continue to experience average volatility Euro/dollar volatility continues to increase, achieving a new 30-day high, as the markets are preparing for Friday’s jobs report, and next week’s US presidential election and the Fed meeting.
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Analysis - 1 month ago

US elections update: The race to the White House tightens

Trump closes in on Harris’s lead in the pollsNeck and neck race spurs market jittersOutcome still hinges on battleground statesTrump narrows the gapThe time for Americans to vote for a new president is drawing ever closer, but who will win on November 5 is looking a lot less certain now than it did when Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Japanese election could hold the key to the next BoJ hike

Japanese snap election will be held on Saturday, October 27Governing LDP party vying for another win but outcome uncertainBoJ’s outlook could be clouded if LPD doesn’t achieve majorityYen could suffer if the new government focuses more on fiscal policy Japan holds elections on October 27Just a few days before the key US presidential election and the much-discussed November 7 Fed meeting, Japan will hold a general election.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Volatility remains elevated in FX space and commodities – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility reaches new 30-day highVolatility in both gold and silver jumpsStock indices continue to experience average volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has climbed to the highest level of the past month, as the ECB delivered its much-expected rate cut and the discussion about the November Fed meeting is underway. But more importantly, the market is preparing for the November 5 US presidential election.
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Analysis - 1 month agoNeutral

Volatility eases slightly as the risk on sentiment lingers – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility is very close to the last 30 days’ highVolatility in commodities remains elevatedStock indices experience above average volatility Euro/dollar volatility remains very high, close to the highest level of the past month, as the US dollar continues to rally following a series of strong US data and some hawkish Fedspeak. Interestingly, the volatility of yen crosses has crashed across the board, with the yen surrendering another good part of its recent sizeable gains on th
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

What’s in store for gold in Q4?

Gold outperforms other asset classes; provides protection against risk eventsTailwinds could persist as Q4 agenda includes US election, Fed policy, and geopolitical risksTechnical outlook remains positive; another bull run could commencePreviously in Q3It’s a golden age for gold which has been exhibiting an unprecedented performance so far this year, adding another 14% to its value in the third quarter despite global central bank reserves stabilizing, to trade up by 42% year-on-year.
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Volatility skyrockets across the board after an eventful week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges to the highest level of the monthVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly highStock indices experience very high volatilityEuro/dollar volatility has reached the highest level of the past 30 days, as the FX market was rocked by the strong US labour market report, denting the possibility of another 50bps Fed rate cut in November.
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Volatility jumps as market prepares for an action-packed week – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility surges as dollar remains on the back footVolatility in commodities reaches new monthly high, led by oilStock indices experience strong volatility amidst a tentative rallyEuro/dollar volatility has jumped over the past week, as the FX market is whipsawed by the possibility of another strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has risen aggressively, with the yen surrendering part of its recent sizeable gains on the back of weaker data and a general el
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Analysis - 2 months agoNeutral

Central banks easing: the race to the bottom has officially commenced

Fed to lead the easing spree in the fourth quarter of 2024A conservative approach is priced in for ECB and BoESNB, BoC and RBNZ to ease further; RBA could follow suitBoJ could surprise with another rate hike by year-end More rate cuts on the way in the fourth quarter of 2024Another round of central banks’ meetings has been completed with the Fed stealing the show by announcing the start of its easing cycle.
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Analysis - 2 months ago

Volatility drops across the board after the Fed meeting – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as dollar underperforms Volatility in commodities stays elevated, led by gold Stock indices experience decent volatility despite the rally Euro/dollar volatility has eased a bit over the past week, as the market digested the strong Fed rate cut. Similarly, volatility of most yen crosses has dropped aggressively lower, as the yen surrendered part of its recent sizeable gains, despite the fact that the BoJ maintained the chances of another rate
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Analysis - 2 months ago

Stocks’ positive reaction might continue until the second Fed rate cut

The Fed announced its first rate cut with a relatively balanced rhetoric History points to a high probability of back-to-back moves Dollar/yen and Treasury yields tend to drop until the second rate cut Barring a major event, stocks’ positive performance could continue The Fed commenced its monetary policy easing cycle in aggressive fashion by announcing an almost unanimous decision to cut rates by 50bps.
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Analysis - 2 months ago

How will the US elections impact the markets?

Harris takes the lead in most polls as Trump’s campaign stalls But what does a Harris win mean for stocks and the US dollar? Can Trump turn things around and what would investors prefer? Late entry The US presidential election is drawing ever closer and there can be no doubt that the race heated up after President Joe Biden abruptly dropped out.
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